[ossa-ma]

With all due respect to the author, this is a lot of words for not much substance. Rehashing the same thoughts everyone already thinks but not being bold enough to make a concrete prediction.

This is the time for bold predictions, you’ve just told us we’re in a crucible moment yet you end the article passively….

[vagab0nd]

I have a theory: I think the recent advance in coding agent has shocked everyone. It's something of such unheard-of novelty that everyone thinks they've discovered something profound. Naturally, they all think they are the only ones in on it and feel the need to share. But in reality, it's already public knowledge, so they add no value. I've been in this trap many times in the last couple years.

[YZF]

Predictions

- Small companies using AI are going to kick the sh*t out of large companies that are slow to adapt.

- LLMs will penetrate more areas of our lives. Closer to the STTNG computer. They will be agents in the real life sense and possibly in the physical world as well (robots).

- ASICs will eat nVidia's lunch.

- We will see an explosion of software and we will also see more jobs for people who are able to maintain all this software (using AI tools). There is going to be a lot more custom software for very specific purposes.

[falloutx]

> Small companies using AI are going to kick the sh*t out of large companies that are slow to adapt.

Big companies are sales machines and their products have been terrible for ages. Microsoft enjoys the top spot in software sales only due to their sales staff pushing impossible deals every year.

[YZF]

It's true the big company products have been terrible but they also enjoyed a moat that made it harder for competitors to enter.

With this moat reduced I think you'll find this approach doesn't work any more. The smaller companies will also hire the good sales people away.

[jdub]

History suggests otherwise, and there's nothing particularly special about this moment.

Microsoft survived (and even, for a little while, dominated) after missing the web. Netscape didn't eat its lunch.

Then Google broke out on a completely different front.

Now there's billions of dollars of investment in "AI", hoping to break out like the next Google... while competing directly with Google.

(This is why we should be more ambitious about constraining large companies and billionaires.)

[YZF]

Well, I made my predictions. Let's come back in a few years.

Netscape didn't attack Microsoft's business software, operating systems or other pieces of their offerings.

Google also didn't seriously attack Microsoft's business.

And neither had the capability to build large software very fast.

Google is both a software company and an infrastructure company as is Microsoft today. Their software is going to become more of a commodity but their data centers still have value (even perhaps more value since all this new software needs a place to run). It's true that if you're in the business of hosting software and selling SaaS you have an advantage over a competitor who does not host their own software.

[jdub]

> Netscape didn't attack Microsoft's business software, operating systems or other pieces of their offerings.

That's not how it was interpreted at the time: Netscape threatened to route around the desktop operating system (Win32) to deliver applications via the browser. "Over the top" as they say in television land.

Netscape didn't succeed, but that's precisely what happened (along with the separate incursion of mobile platforms, spearheaded by Apple... followed quickly by Google, who realised they had to follow suit very quickly).

> And neither had the capability to build large software very fast.

Internet Explorer. Android. Gemini.

[beej71]

I also predict an explosion of work for qualified devs. And I predict there will be an undersupply of them.

[jdjdndbdhsjsb]

Here is my bold prediction: 2026 is the year where companies start the lay offs.

2026 is the year where we all realise that we can be our own company and build the stuff in our dreams rather than the mundane crap we do at work.

Honestly I am optimistic about computing in general. Llms will open things up for novices and experts alike. We can move into I the fields where we can use our brain power... But all we need is enough memory and compute to control our destiny....

[AIorNot]

I don't know, its a bit of a hellscape in tech right now as thousands of people with deep domain knowledge and people knowledge and business knowledge (ie experienced engineers managers and product owners), were laid off by C Suites desperate to keep the AI funded mandates going

Do you know how hard it to make a successful company or even make money? Its like saying any actor can goto hollywood and be a star

VCs wont fund everyone

Nobody is sure of anything

[jdjdndbdhsjsb]

Yes it is. But I am an optimist for human nature. I personally believe smaller companies doing different things is the future... Scaling as they need. It is a hellscape but people can and will adapt.

> Do you know how hard it to make a successful company or even make money?

Yes I have failed to do it before. I get this.

> VCs wont fund everyone

And? Do you need VCs? Economics mean that scale matters but what if we don't need it. What if we can make efficient startups with our own funding??

[AIorNot]

I’d like to say its possible

But heres the reality from me- I’m in my 50s and I don't have it in me to grind at the level of 20 year olds to achieve some level of security in an untried business model - and this is someone who has launched 2 AI startups in the past 2 years

In one we got VC funding but I left after setting up their agent platform and tons of AI assisted coding only to not meet impossible deadlines and over-promised AI value to enterprise customers - I was literally working 20 hr days at stretch for 170k salary competing and half benefits against 25 year olds out of stamford with no lives- far lower than the 250+ with stock and benefits I got in my EM role at a big company which now evaporated - I was edged out of that startup role for not delivering “on time”

My second AI startup I cofounded with friends and trusted colleagues its bootstrapped (all of us are over 40) - so we have more experience and better deadlines now but its up to the business gods on how well it will do- crossing my fingers

But its a lot of pressure for sure and I currently have no health insurance and my wife was laid off in December and we lost her benefits

So I wouldn’t call myself optimistic in the end stage capitalistic hellwhole that is modern “middle class” America

I hope a better work model can be found - but having some any salary and medical benefit security would be nice

I went to an AI meetup last week and it was filled with gray hairs - i could sense the desperation as many people I met told me they were laid off recently and trying to dive in

Ironically looking at them it reminded me of those interviews they used to do in Appalachia or something when a town was out of work and advisors came in and said “learn to code instead of mining” (ok I may be exaggerating somewhat but I even know a ex Microsoft manager who had to resort to a go-fundme to keep his family afloat)

[AIorNot]

update: this reddit thread is somewhat amusing satirical post on this topic

https://www.reddit.com/r/ClaudeCode/comments/1qzj9ve/67_no_f...

[Muromec]

>Here is my bold prediction: 2026 is the year where companies start the lay offs.

Start? Excuse moi

[jdjdndbdhsjsb]

Yeah fair... But now it is different I.e. they won't regret it

[layer8]

What gives you the idea that they regretted it?

[falloutx]

Except it started in 2023, we are in the middle of layoff waves.