[agumonkey]

Oh I'm well aware of this. I admitted defeat in a way.. I can't compete. I'm just at loss, and unless LLM stall and break for some reason (ai bubble, enshittification..) I don't see a future for me in "software" in a few years.

[stareatgoats]

Somehow I appreciate this type of attitude more than the one which reflects total denial of the current trajectory. Fervent denial and AI trash-talking being maybe the single most dominant sentiment on HN over the last year, by all means interspersed with a fair amount of amazement at our new toys.

But it is sad if good programmers should loose sight of the opportunities the future will bring (future as in the next few decades). If anything, software expertise is likely to be one of the most sought-after skills - only a slightly different kind of skill than churning out LOCs on a keyboard faster than the next person: People who can harness the LLMs, design prompts at the right abstraction level, verify the code produced, understand when someone has injected malware, etc. These skills will be extremely valuable in the short to medium term AFAICS.

But ultimately we will obviously become obsolete if nothing (really) catastrophic happens, but when that happens then likely all human labor will be obsolete too, and society will need to be organized differently than exchanging labor for money for means of sustenance.

[almostdeadguy]

If the world comes to that it will be absolutely catastrophic, and it’s a failure of grappling with the implications that many of the executives of AI companies think you can paper over the social upheaval with some UBI. There will be no controlling what happens, and you don’t even need to believe in some malicious autonomous AI to see that.

[agumonkey]

I get crazy over the 'engineer are not paid to write loc', nobody is sad because they don't have to type anymore. My two issues are it levels the delivery game, for the average web app, anybody can now output something acceptable, and then it doesn't help me conceptualize solution better, so I revert to letting it produce stuff that is not maleable enough.

[majormajor]

I wonder about who "anybody can now output something acceptable" will hit most - engineers or software entrepreneurs.

Any implementation moat around rapid prototyping, and any fundraising moat around hiring a team of 10 to knock out your first few versions, seems gone now. Trying to sell MVP-tier software is real hard when a bunch of your potential customers will just think "thanks for the idea, I'll just make my own."

The crunch for engineers, on the other hand, seems like that even if engineers are needed to "orchestrate the agents" and manage everything, there could be a feature-velocity barrier for the software that you can still sell (either internally or externally). Changing stuff more rapidly can quickly hit a point of limited ROI if users can't adjust, or are slowed by constant tooling/workflow churn. So at some point (for the first time in many engineers' career, probably) you'll probably see product say "ok even though we built everything we want to test, we can't roll it all out at once!". But maybe what is learned from starting to roll those things out will necessitate more changes continually that will need some level of staffing still. Or maybe cheaper code just means ever-more-specialized workflows instead of pushing users to one-size-fits-all tooling.

In both of those cases the biggest challenge seems to be "how do you keep it from toppling down over time" which has been the biggest unsolved problem in consumer software development for decades. There's a prominent crowd right now saying "the agents will just manage it by continuing to hack on everything new until all the old stuff is stable too" but I'm not sure that's entirely realistic. Maybe the valuable engineering skills will be putting in the right guardrails to make sure that behavioral verification of the code is a tractable problem. Or maybe the agents will do that too. But right now, like you say, I haven't found particularly good results in conceptualizing better solutions from the current tools.

[agumonkey]

> your potential customers will just think "thanks for the idea, I'll just make my own."

yeah, and i'm surprised nobody talks about this much. prompting is not that hard, and some non software people are smart enough to absorb the necessary details (especially since the llm can tutor them on the way) and then let the loop produce the MVP.

> Or maybe cheaper code just means ever-more-specialized workflows instead of pushing users to one-size-fits-all tooling.

Interesting thought

[anjel]

The future is either a language model trained on AI code bloats and the ways to optimize the bloat away

OR,

something like Mercor, currently getting paid really well by Meta, OpenAI, Anthropic and Gemini to pay very smart humans really well to proof language model outputs.

[acedTrex]

Yep, its a rather depressing realization isnt it. Oh well, life moves on i suppose.

I think we realistically have a few years of runway left though. Adoption is always slow outside of the far right of the bell curve.

[agumonkey]

i'm sorry if I pulled everybody down .. but it's been many months since gemini and claude became solid tools, and regularly i have this strong gut feeling. i tried reevaluating my perception of my work, goals, value .. but i keep going back to nope.

[dextrous]

After a multi-decade career that spanned what is rapidly seeming like the golden age of software development, I have two emotions: first gratefulness; second a mixture of resignation, maudlin reflection, and bitterness that I am fighting hard to resist.

As someone who’s always wanted to “get home and code something on my own”, I do have a glimmer of hope that I wonder if others share. I’ve worked extensively with Claude and there’s no question I am now a high velocity “builder” and my broad experience has some value here. I am sad that I won’t be able to deeply look at all the code I am producing, but I am making sure the LLM and I structure things so that I could eventually dig in to modules if needed (unlikely to happen I suppose).

Anyway, my hope/question: if I embrace my new role as fast system builder and I am creative in producing systems that solve real problems “first”, is there a path to making that a career (I.e. 4 friends and I cranking out real production software that’s filling a real niche)? There must be some way for this to succeed —- I am not yet buying the “everything will be instantly copyable and so any solution is instantly commodity” argument. If that’s true, then there is no hope. I am still in shape, though, so going pro in pickleball is always an option, ha ha.

[samiv]

Unfortunately you aren't a high velocity builder. The velocity curve has now shifted and everyone having Claude blast out loc after loc is now a high velocity builder. And when everyone is a high velocity builder...nobody is.

[dextrous]

“And when everyone’s super, no one will be”.

Fair point, but my hope is that the creativity involved in deciding what to build, with the choice informed by engineering experience (the project/value will not be obvious to everyone) will allow differentiation.

[samiv]

"creativity involved in deciding what to build, with the choice informed by engineering experience (the project/value will not be obvious to everyone) will allow differentiation."

How? Anyone upon seeing your digital product can just prompt the same thing in no time. If you can prompt it, I can prompt it and so can a million other people.

Nobody whether an individual or business holds any uniqueness or advantage to themselves. All careers and skill sets are leveled and worthless. Implementation skills are worthless. Creativity is worthless.

The only valuable thing is data.

[gspr]

I hear you. And maybe you're right. Maybe I'm deluding myself, but: when I look at my skilled colleagues who vibecode, I can't understand how this is sustainable. They're smart people, but they've clearly turned off. They can't answer non-trivial questions about the details of the stuff they (vibe-)delivered without asking the LLM that wrote it. Whoever uses the code downstream aren't gonna stand (or pay!) for this long-term! And the skills of the (vibe-)authors will rapidly disappear.

Maybe I'm just as naive as those who said that photographs lack the soul of paintings. But I'm not 100% convinced we're done for yet, if what you're actually selling is thinking, reasoning and understanding.

[shinycode]

The difference with a purely still photograph is that code is a functional encoding of an intention. Code of an LLM could be perfect and still not encode the perfect intention of the product. I’ve seen that in many occasions. Many people don’t understand what code really is about and think they have a printer toy now and we don’t have to use pencils. That’s not at all the same thing. Code is intention, logic, specific use case all at once. With a non deterministic system and vague prompting there will be misinterpreted intentions from LLM because the model makes decisions to move forward. The problem is the scale of it, we’re not talking about 1000 loc. In a month you can generate millions of loc, in a year hundreds of millions of loc.

Some will have to crash and burn their company before they realize that no human at all in the loop is a non sense. Let them touch fire and make up their mind I guess.

[raw_anon_1111]

> Code is intention, logic, specific use case all at once. With a non deterministic system and vague prompting there will be misinterpreted intentions from LLM because the model makes decisions to move forward. The problem is the scale of it, we’re not talking about 1000 loc. In a month you can generate millions of loc, in a year hundreds of millions of loc.

People are also non deterministic. When I delegate work to team of five or six mid level developers or God forbid outsourced developers, I’m going to have to check and review their work too.

It’s been over a decade that my vision/responsibility could be carried out by just my own two hands and be done on time within 40 hours a week - until LLMs

[gspr]

People are indeed not deterministic. But they are accountable. In the legal sense, of course, but more importantly, in an interpersonal sense.

Perhaps outsourcing is a good analogy. But in that case I'd call it outsourcing without accountability. LLMs feel more like an infinite chain of outsourcing.

[shinycode]

Ofc people are non deterministic. But usually we expect machines to be. That’s why we trust them blindly and don’t check the calculations. We review people’s work all the time though. Here people will stop review machine LLM code as it’s kind of a source of truth like in other areas. That’s my point, reviewing code takes time and even more time when no human wrote it. It’s a dangerous path to stop reviews because of trust in the machine now that the machine is just kind of like humans, non deterministic.

[andhuman]

I have this nagging feeling I’m more and more skimming text, not just what the LLMs output, but all type of texts. I’m afraid people will get too lazy to read, when the LLM is almost always right. Maybe it’s a silly thought. I hope!

[gspr]

This is my fear too.

People will say "oh, it's the same as when the printing press came, people were afraid we'd get lazy from not copying text by hand", or any of a myriad of other innovations that made our lives easier. I think this time it's different though, because we're talking about offloading the very essence of humanity – thinking. Sure, getting too lazy to walk after cars became widespread was detrimental to our health, but if we get too lazy to think, what are we?

[agumonkey]

there are some youtube videos about the topic, be it pupil in high school addicted to llms, or adults losing skills, and not dev only, society is starting to see strange effects

[atentaten]

Can you provide links to these videos?

[samiv]

I feel the same. And I expect even a lot of the early adopters and AI enthusiasts are going to find themselves as the short end of the stick sooner than later.

"Oops I automated myself out a job".

[agumonkey]

I've already seen this play out. The lazies in our floor were all crazy about AI because they could finally work few and finish their tasks. Until they realized that they were visibly replaceable now. The motto in team chats is "we'll lie about the productivity gains to management, just say 10% but with lots of caretaking" now

[Der_Einzige]

Yup. The majority of this website is going to find out they were grossly overpaid for a long time.

[untrust]

Imagine everyone who is in less technical or skilled domains.

I can't help but resist this line of thinking as a result. If the end is nigh for us, it's nigh for everyone else too. Imagine the droves of less technical workers in the workforce who will be unseated before software engineers. I don't think it is tenable for every worker in the first world to become replaced by a computer. If an attempt at this were to occur, those smart unemployed people would be a real pain in the ass for the oligarchs.

[Wobbles42]

I feel the same.

Frankly, I am not sure there is a place in the world at all for me in ten years.

I think the future might just be a big enough garden to keep me fed while I wait for lack of healthcare access to put me out of my misery.

I am glad I am not younger.

[sdf2erf]

So why havent you been fired already?

.......

[agumonkey]

gemini has only been deployed in the corp this year, but the expectations are now higher (doubled). i'll report by the end of the year..