[pfisherman]

Oh boy, are you going to be in for a rude awakening. Might I ask what is your exposure? Because this does not line up with what I am witnessing day to day at all.

This type of commentary reminds me of the people during the dot com boom who were adamant that e-commerce was all film flam and would never take off.

Consider that it is possible that both (1) we are in an investment bubble and (2) we are underestimating the long term impact of LLMs and perhaps mispredicting where they will land.

[symfrog]

In what way is the long term impact of LLMs being underestimated? If anything, it seems that it has been overestimated in the past years and that something other than LLMs will be needed to reach the original scaled LLM hope of AGI.

[pchristensen]

Back when the Internet was America online and some CGI bin perl scripts, there were a lot of very lofty things said about the potential of the Internet in the future. I don’t remember any of them predicting the power of the tech would have over business, politics, media, and hours of every single day for billions of people. Even without AGI, it’s quite possible that were still underestimating. The effects of predictive, probabilistic computing 20 or 50 years from now.

[sdf2erf]

The internet alone didnt change sh!t. Without smartphones, unified app stores, cellular network innovation et al internet traffic would not be so high.

Funny how people leave this stuff out. Yawn. Basic simpleton analysis and takes.

[ygjb]

The Internet created the backbone that allowed for rapid experimentation in communications technologies, and created the ability for anyone to create and share technologies and reach a huge audience very quickly.

Without the Internet, most consumer electronics would have been far more expensive to build, and would have been strictly controlled walled gardens, but the Internet in general and the Web in particular allowed so many inventors to flourish. Ever since that Genie was let out of the bottle, corporate and government interests have been trying to put it back in, and most companies are trying to build and reinforce walled gardens under the banner of unified app stores that extract insane rents.

[thunky]

Wow this is like going on a medical forum and saying "medicine didn't change shit".

[dd8601fn]

They were replying to this particular underestimation:

> AI is limited to probabilistic and annoying chatbots that are for entertainment and for looking up trivia questions.

That is not a rational assessment of the utility that the technology provides, even today.

[byyrlogic]

By your logic the only way to achieve number 2 is to keep pumping number 1.

This type of commentary reminds of people propping up these LLM MLMs.