[0xffff2]

Does anyone expect there will be a post oil industry? I would assume (with not particular knowledge on the subject mind) that once we wind down oil use for fuel and to some extent plastics, there will be enough oil in the ground to support enough extraction for asphalt and other currently trivial uses indefinitely.

[Perz1val]

Afaik, (extremely simplifying) refineries split crude oil into fractions; we burn lighter hydrocarbons as fuel, make plastics out of the middle/heavy parts and what's left in the pot are some heavy, dirty remains that we figured make good roads instead of being thrown out.

We've already hit the point that electric cars are cheaper to operate, yet photovoltaic prices keep falling. Even equipment like electric excavators is now a thing. Batteries keep improving. It'll compound to smaller and smaller fuel, thus oil needs, so there will be less refining, thus less asphalt.

The assumption wasn't that that there will be no oil extraction, it was that there might be a future without tons of almost free road material. But I have zero expertise in oil macroeconomics, the question might've been stupid, I don't know that, haha

[zdragnar]

An asphalt roofing shingle company just closed in Minneapolis due to the city's new CO2 tax. The local environmental group held a little press conference crowing about it.

Mind you, this won't change the demand for asphalt shingles, they'll just be shipped from further, generating more C02 on the whole.

The only other current alternatives are all non-renewable as well- mined clay, slate, or metal. For residential roofs, I'm hoping metal continues to come down in price, as they tend to last longer and can be made to look quite good. For commercial / flat roofed buildings, there still needs to be some very thick rubberized underlayment below gravel or whatever to prevent standing water from getting in. The same is true for sod roofs in hobbit style earth homes.

So, yeah, there's still people in power who expect that all petroleum based products are equally evil and must be punished.

[quickthrowman]

> An asphalt roofing shingle company just closed in Minneapolis due to the city's new CO2 tax. The local environmental group held a little press conference crowing about it.

For what it’s worth, Owens Corning operates an asphalt shingle plant in North Minneapolis (1701 49th Ave N) and they have no intentions of closing it down.

The commercial roof material you’re referring to is called EPDM rubber: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/EPDM_rubber

[zdragnar]

Nope, GAF / Building Materials Manufacturing LLC:

https://bringmethenews.com/minnesota-business/minneapolis-ro...

[quickthrowman]

I understand that, I was pointing out that another asphalt shingle plant in Minneapolis is still operating despite the CO2 tax.

[zdragnar]

That's nice, but my response was to demonstrate that there are in fact people who think there's post petroleum industry, or at least desire it, not that none are foolish enough to stick around.

The original tax passed by the council, and overriding the mayor's veto was 90 times the current one at $452 a ton versus the current $5. The only reason for the drop was that the original couldn't possibly survive a challenge in court.

The environmental group celebrating the GAF closure is also real, and would likely celebrate Owens closing too.