[ethbr1]

The repeated failing of the EU (90s+) was under-appreciation of the economic / political / military pressure that could be brought by constraining key material and energy supplies.

If the EU (specifically Germany) had more presciently modeled out Russian foreign policy with a shift to increased EU reliance on Russian natural gas, there were steps it could have taken.

E.g. building in a tripwire for territorial invasion with the express responses of cutting Russian gas purchases on day 1, freezing Russian assets and access to European banking, and building storage / LNG terminals

Had the EU done this, loudly, Ukraine likely wouldn't have been invaded.

The EU's biggest mistake was presuming that everyone took the international order as inviolate as it did. (China, Russia, the US)