Ah yes. "If smartphones turn out to be the future, people will probably just buy them from existing phone brands that they trust, like Nokia or Motorola." — a lot of people in 2007
For what it's worth, I have a Motorola smartphone, and I certainly wouldn't trade it in for an iPhone.
The point I'm trying to make is that that the prediction is correct assuming "people" refers mostly to the people making the predictions. Or... people tend to project their ways of thinking, and likes and dislikes, onto other people.
Again what I said about different customer acquisition models.
1 - Smart phones have 2-4 years life at about $200 or so price point. They are not $60,000 cars that force buyers to buy a $600/year service contract from Tesla.
2 - Apple had the entire MP3 market with their ipods not to mention an army of long-time fanboys. Translate to a strong consumer brand loyalty. Tesla doesn't have any of these.
The point I'm trying to make is that that the prediction is correct assuming "people" refers mostly to the people making the predictions. Or... people tend to project their ways of thinking, and likes and dislikes, onto other people.