[ben_w]

Only if we're lucky and the LLMs cease being replaced with improved models.

Claude has already shown us people who openly say "I don't code and yet I managed this"; right now the command line UI will scare off a lot of people, and people using the LLMs still benefit from technical knowledge and product design skills, if the tools don't improve we keep that advantage…

…but how long will it be before the annoyingly ignorant customer skips the expensive annoyingly ignorant manager along with all us expensive developers, and has one of the models write them bespoke solution for less than the cost of off-the-shelf shrink-wrapped DVDs from a discount store?

Hopefully that extra stuff is further away than it seems, hopefully in a decade there will be an LLM version of this list: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_predictions_for_autono...

But I don't trust to hope. It has forsaken these lands.

[TeMPOraL]

> using the LLMs still benefit from technical knowledge and product design skills, if the tools don't improve we keep that advantage…

I don't think we will, because many of us are already asking LLMs for help/advice on these, so we're already close to the point where LLMs will be able to use these capabilities directly, instead of just for helping us drive the process.

[ben_w]

Indeed, but the output of LLMs today for these kinds of task are akin to a junior product designer, a junior project manager, a junior software architect etc.

For those of us who are merely amateur at any given task, LLMs raising us to "junior" is absolutely an improvement. But just as it's possible to be a better coder than an LLM, if you're a good PM or QA or UI/UX designer, you're not obsolete yet.