[Shocka1]

IMO, this is one of the better takes in this thread. I'm a big fan of Hazlitt's book Economics in One Lesson, which gives a very condensed version of some economic ideas - one of them being automation, with really good examples in the past of labor saving machines like the printing press being created. When I first read it a decade ago I didn't think my profession might be like the printing press, but it's definitely in the crosshairs now.

If I lost my software engineering job tomorrow and was unable to find work within a few months, I have a repurposing plan ready to go. Yes it would be terrible for me economically and I'm sure there would be some sad days, but sometimes bad things happen and we have to make the best of them and move on.

[WalterBright]

The printing press also led to books changing from being something only rich people had to everyone having books. This also enabled the industrial revolution, as books made literacy worth having, newspapers, and became a great storehouse of knowledge.

I.e. it created far, far more jobs than it destroyed.

[1shooner]

I have not heard even the most enthusiastic AI booster describe net job creation as a possible outcome. If you have any details on that prediction, I'd be interested to hear what they are.

[WalterBright]

Nobody remotely believed what the printing press invention would lead to.

After all, Gutenberg had only a modest goal of printing and selling indulgences. He didn't understand what the printing press was good for, either.

Pretty much all the jobs today did not exist before the printing press that enabled them.

[anon291]

I mean in some countries today, the idea of universal literacy helping people is still met with skepticism by some segments of the population.

It's apparently not obvious that mode access to books , learning, and literacy will improve lives

[anon291]

Net job creation will be the outcome as the insane number of businesses that were once too expensive to start due to lack of knowledge labor suddenly come online.

[nacozarina]

we all be employed as hunters, gatherers or revolutionaries

[lechatonnoir]

I mean... you can't think of any ways that AI could actually generate new value? Or more abstractly, of a way that Jevons' paradox can't apply in the case of AI?

[apical_dendrite]

One wonders if a German in 1600 would have cursed the invention of the printing press. The printing press accelerated the reformation, which led to over a century of bloody religious wars. Something like a third of the German population died as a result. From the perspective of 2025, the printing press was undoubtedly positive for humanity. But millions of people suffered.

[beedeebeedee]

It is refreshing to hear someone mention that when discussing the printing press (however horrible it is). Most people only paint a rosy picture.

[WalterBright]

People are still engaging in religious wars. The printing press didn't change that.

[Shocka1]

Indeed, and I think this is one of the things Hazlitt mentions. After the first initial shocks, opportunities and pathways will eventually present themselves.

[BigHatLogan]

What is your repurposing plan, if you don't mind my asking? I am trying to think of alternatives too, but it's quite stressful.

[Shocka1]

I have friends in commercial sheet metal/plumbing/electrical, and the work is endless right now in my area in the Midwest. My immediate goal would be to get on a journeyman program making a fraction of what I make now, and then onwards and upwards from there as I know the more skilled people in these jobs are making top tier money in my area. When I was in college I worked part-time in residential, so it seems logical that I would gravitate in this direction, especially with the supply of work.

At the same time I'd be applying to senior software engineering positions geared towards anything energy/nuclear and possibly datacenter tech/engineering positions as well, but I would be extremely picky. Since everyone is so obsessed with AI/productivity, the electrical grid is going to be more stressed than ever. I'd target positions with no H1B competition, cleared positions and whatnot - this isn't a crack on H1B, but I would imagine there is higher probability in getting interviews without them in the picture. BUT I'm at the whim of hiring managers and whiteboards at that point, which isn't ideal, hence the trades route mentioned first.

I love software so much and have spent the majority of my life doing it, spent all that time getting a CS Master degree and whatnot. It would be a sad day for me, but you do what you have to do. I have a family as well, so not as much mobility and time to burn as a person without.

I think this plan is specific to my situation, but I hope it helps getting a few ideas kicking around in your mind. It is definitely a stressful thing if you think about it too deeply, but I try to distance myself from that mental mode and focus more on what I would have to do if that time comes.

[nyantaro1]

same here

[Shocka1]

for notification purposes, see one of my latest comments above.

[theshackleford]

> If I lost my software engineering job tomorrow and was unable to find work within a few months, I have a repurposing plan ready to go.

Get back to me when you need to execute that plan with millions of others joining the bread line.

[jacquesm]

Your plan, whatever it is is still predicated on the world as it is today being more or less as it is today. The problem with anything truly disruptive is that it may very well cause your plan to become infeasible for a variety of reasons. For your sake I hope that you were aware of that little detail and made your plan bullet proof or flexible enough that that is not going to cause you any headaches.

[Shocka1]

Of course things can change and I wholeheartedly agree with you. If a plan goes bad you adapt and overcome. Also, I've experienced being poor and lived in warzones/slept in terrible places, which gave me a very positive look at life in the USA. No need to worry about me as I assure you I'll be good either way.

Life is actually very good here and there is a lot of mobility if you have even a small amount of motivation. I feel like I'm preaching to the choir here though jacquesm - if I recall correctly (I'm not going to look at your comment history), I feel like I read once that you come from a family of first gen immigrants that experienced conditions similar to what I did when I was younger, and I would love to hear more about their/your perspective on being in a place like the USA and the opportunities it did/didn't bring.

[jacquesm]

I've moved around a lot in my life but I would not describe myself as coming from a background of family of first gen immigrants, however, I do have family that is in that position. My family was well established (since the 1600's or so) in the country where I was born.

[Shocka1]

My apologies, I have confused you with another long term user!

[jacquesm]

Np, I'll make more effort to stand out ;)

[Shocka1]

No... You make enough quality comments that I remember your username, so I think you already have that one in the bag. Looking forward to more from you as well.

[ytoawwhra92]

All very well to have a plan, and I'm sure some people manage to successfully "repurpose" themselves, but historically the way this plays out is that redundant workers live out their days in relative poverty and it's their children/grandchildren who find new opportunities out of economic necessity. Usually takes 2-3 generations for the impact on workers to fully shake out.

[poulpy123]

Your repurposing plan would work only if it is not automated too and if the numbers of people that would choose a similar plan is low enough

[Shocka1]

Agreed, supply and demand - there are some negatives, but this is the only way I would choose for it to be.