[rdl]

It's also totally meaningless to use the population statistics for "all new small businesses" and try to extrapolate to "scalable tech startups in silicon valley".

I'd have probably 50-80% odds of building a successful consulting business or other small technology business which scales directly on labor, generates ~$100k/yr in profit per employee (over salary), up to a few employees, etc.

I'd have lower odds of building a hugely successful consumer startup like Facebook. I'd hope it's a touch higher than for a random farmer in rural China, but still not that great.

I think I have better odds than many for building something in between -- a business focused infrastructure/security startup, maybe not a 1b user $100b business like Facebook, but also not a consultancy. Plenty of $100mm/yr revenue opportunities in the b2b space.

Even if the expected return for each type of business were the same over all people, I probably have a comparative advantage in b2b, and other people may have a comparative advantage in consultancy or in huge consumer startups.