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by c-fe 136 days ago
As a retail investor mostly invested into broad ETFs (All World), is there any way I can get short exposure to OpenAI? Being short Oracle/Nvidia/Microsoft?
4 comments

Shorting OIA, or really any big company, is like trying to stop a train which is on fire by standing in front of it. Yes, it is on fire and won't last long, but it will still crush any small player trying to overpower whole corrupt system.
You don't need to stand in front of a train to bet on a trainwreck.
But that isn't the analogy, is it?

Betting on the trainwreck is quite easy, you got nothing to lose in the analogy, while shorting companies will cost you something, most times a lot if the bet has the wrong timing.

Betting usually has a cost.
A fixed one, not one that can suffer snowballing increase in case your bet is wrong.
Not necessarily. Spread betting doesn't work like that for instance. And shorting a stock can be structured in a way that caps your losses as well. It's just a matter of cost vs potential gains.
Im not sure I like that market in particular, but probably polymarket is indeed the best one… assuming the market will resolve fairly
I've never used polymarket, I just wanted to mention prediction markets as an option in general.

The particular bet I linked to is probably a bad idea though, because there is a causal link between OpenAI doing well and deciding to go public. So this is not the way to bet on it crashing and burning.

That's an excellent question. My fear is that it's going to be a little bit like putting a towel on a pool-bed on the Titanic...
Exactly. I would prefer to remain invested as I dont want to time the market. But I would prefer if I could meaningfully reduce exposure to OpenAI and the consequences of their possible downfall.
Not really that gives you much exposure:

If OpenAI is worth $5B, 4% of MSFT market Cap is Open AI.

ARK Venture Fund (ARKVX) holding is 7.2% of its total but also has xAI, Anthropic and lots of other AI

https://www.ark-funds.com/funds/arkvx#hold

OpenAI going bust might be a shock to shareprices of publicly traded companies like Oracle, CoreWeave, Softbank and the like

EDIT: obviously if OpenAI is worth $500B, not 5