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> What reasons do you have to believe that they will be friendly

Why wouldn’t they be? Like in the case of Ukraine/Russia there is no large ethnic or cultural divide, and in America we don’t believe in that kind of thing mattering anyway, right?

The Russians have no reason for animosity towards the Ukrainian people as far as I can tell. Unlike, say, the Ottomans invading Europe. And especially if they signed a deal through negotiation prior to any violence.

I am not an expert in the area of Ukrainian/Russian history, so I base my position on all the arguments I have seen others make across the full spectrum, and I have seen zero people arguing from any such basis aside from vague allusions to nationalism. Like what makes the Ukrainians different from any of the bazillion other smaller groups that used to exist before they got smooshed into Russia? Is it rational to risk everything to not end up like them? Is where you ended up that much better? And anyway it’s not personal, your government has just gotten too friendly with the Americans, comrade. Etc. I don’t see any other argument for what is happening other than blind obedience to a government that is probably not being totally honest to the people about its motives (just think about how many times that happened during the world wars, that we concretely know about).