[johnfn]

I find one-off anecdotal examples like this to be a bit like discourse around global warming - "Look at that ridiculous polar vortex we had this week! Global warming can't possibly be a thing!" Of course, a trend line comprises many points, and not every point falls perfectly in the center of the line! I'm not necessarily saying you are right or wrong, but your argument should address the line (and ideally give some reason why it might falter) rather than just a single point on that line.

[firasd]

Ah but I'm not arguing about the rate of change in the trend. I'm saying the signals are decoupled. That is to say an LLM can be as good as a programmer as Linus Torvalds without having even basic knowledge-generalization abilities we assume the median human with no specialized skills would have (when given the same knowledge an LLM has)

[johnfn]

I think most LLM proponents would say that "basic knowledge-generalization abilities" is on a different, slower trend line.

I mean, you aren't very surprised that your CPU can crush humans at chess but can barely run an image classifier, right? But you probably wouldn't say (as you are saying with LLMs) that ability for a CPU to play chess is "decoupled" from classifying images. Increases in CPU speed improve both. You'd just say that one is a lot harder than the other.