[paraschopra]

There does seem to be some flaw in this argument. Within those people who have orders of magnitude higher probability of succeeding, how do you differentiate? My general point is the it is impossible to assign a probability to an individual's success (since there is only one data point). So for calculating probability, you will have to aggregate many individuals and see how many of them become successful. The OP's understanding of probability is entirely accurate if we talk about general set of people who are starting companies (assuming figures quoted are accurate).

Of course, within a set you can create many more subsets but that doesn't mean original set is wrong.