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by UncleMeat
150 days ago
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Yes, RBG retiring would not have switched the court. But 6-3 is meaningfully different than 5-4. 6-3 means you can lose one from your coalition, enabling more extreme majority opinions. You can see this even in the very highest profile cases like Dobbs and Trump v US, where one of the conservatives didn't join the entire majority. It also makes flipping the court enormously more difficult. 5-4 means that one conservative dying and an inopportune time and you flip it. 6-3 makes this statistically unlikely. I very strongly suspect that we will see Alito and Thomas retire this year. Everybody knows how this goes now. |
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