[decafninja]

Based on my rather limited knowledge of French politics, isn’t Macron and his coalition supremely unpopular and just one election away from losing the country to factions that have a distinctly different vision of Europe and France’s role within? Including distancing itself from any pan-European entities and presenting a friendlier face to Russia?

Seems like the current French government and many decisions they make between now and then would be lame-ducky and be taken with a grain of salt.

[coredev_]

In this time, would the population really want to switch to pro-russian policies?

Also comparing with Italy, did Meloni really turn out the way people (including myself) thought?

[epolanski]

Her government is a half disaster, but at least it's stable.

The only reason she didn't turn worse is because her government highly depends on more moderate parties like Forza Italia.

[decafninja]

There are naive people with good intentions that feel that war is absolutely never justified and it would be better for everyone if Ukraine just rolled over and surrendered. Nevermind who the aggressor is. Note, this is not my own opinion.

Others that think a nation should turn isolationist and focus on domestic problems instead of helping other European countries.

Regarding Meloni, yes, people feared how she’d end up like, and many vilified her leading up to the election. But not to the degree that say, the National Rally or the Le Pens have always been. Or at least, that is what I observed as an outsider who is neither French, Italian, or European.

Plus, you can argue that many people believed “oh, Trump couldn’t possibly really be like that”, and, well, here we are.

[ben_w]

> isn’t Macron and his coalition supremely unpopular and just one election away from losing the country to factions that have a distinctly different vision of Europe and France’s role within

That's been just as true of all their politicians for as long as I can remember. Multiparty system, after a few rounds the vote for president comes down to someone sane but unpopular vs. some equivalent of the Tea Party, the French population put clothespegs on their noses and votes for the sane option.

(Dunno about the rest of their electoral system besides president).

[decafninja]

So far yes. But hasn’t it been the trend that the not-so-sane factions been getting closer and closer every election, to the point that they’re realistically on the cusp of siezing victory?

I remember the last election Macron’s coalition had to use some kind of creative trickery to keep National Rally and their friends from winning; after which the latter called foul.

Edit: digging deeper, said “trickery” appears to be a tactic that has been used in the past like you said. But it also seems like it’s never been this close down to the wire too.

[epolanski]

He is unpopular because he did the right thing on many topics such as rising the age of pensions in a country that cannot sustain the current system anymore, especially with the demographic downfall.

Honestly, Macron is one of the few politicians in Europe that has consistently understood the importance of pan-Europeanism and has called for strengthening of European armies or giving birth to an EU army for a long time.

I understand he's unpopular, but as a non-French I cannot see how he's been wrong on so many topics, especially when it comes to international relations.

And to finish, with the recent world events I highly doubt that Trump-like politicians can win elections, especially in countries like France. Sadly, a Trumpist did win elections in Poland just recently though.

All eastern European countries are plagued by this insanity of electing presidents, which makes it very easy to fall into this anti democratic insanities we see from Russia to Belarus and now US.

[belval]

Internally maybe, but Trump has a way to trigger large political movements within countries.

Canada was supposed to have a large (historically large) conservative government 3 months before the latest elections, but with Trump in the white house people suddenly want to move away from the right, it's a very interesting effect.

https://www.nytimes.com/2025/05/04/world/canada/global-elect...

It's not impossible that we will see something similar happen across Europe.

[scrubs]

As recently reported on politico.eu, the absolute stupidity of Trump's desire for Canada, Greenland, Venezuela play, his foul ignorant mouth on NATO, and criticism of Euro countries has made him too risky to be associated with. He's becoming radioactive skank on parade bad.

For those in the US like me: Trump will be the single largest reason for the rise of popularist left politics here, which we don't need either.

Granted like the Marshal Tucker song "I heard it in a love song" ... "can't be wrong" Trump isn't actually popular right. Trump is about vanity and self enrichment.

[honzabe]

As a European, I hope Trump 2.0 will do to European Trumpist movements what Brexit did to European anti-EU movements.