[SirensOfTitan]

We need to define terms precisely first and the industry seems allergic to that, likely because precise terms would undermine hype marketing necessary for companies like Anthropic to justify their valuations.

We need clear definitions and clear ways of evaluating toward those definitions, as human evaluation of LLM is rife with projection.

Generally speaking, scaling is clearly not going to get LLMs there, and a lot of the gains over the past year or so have been either related to reasoning or domain-specific training and application.

I do think world models are the future and we’ll likely see some initial traction toward that end this year. Frontier AI labs will have to prove they can run sustainable businesses in pursuit of the next stage though, so I’d anticipate at least one major lab goes defunct or gets acquired. It may very well be that the labs that brush up against AGI according to conventional definitions are still nascent stage. And there’s a distinct possibility of another AI winter if none of the current labs can prove sustainable businesses on the back of LLMs.

I think a lot of the west is undergoing the early stages of a Kuhnian paradigm shift in many ways, so I’ve found it difficult to take the signaling from the macro environment and put it to work in my decision making.