[truted2]

> For example, world top-10 youth chess players and later world top-10 adult chess players are nearly 90% different individuals across time. Top secondary students and later top university students are also nearly 90% different people. Likewise, international-level youth athletes and later international-level adult athletes are nearly 90% different individuals.

Motivation if you feel like you're young and failing

[soperj]

from sports i know (hockey), generally the next generational player is identified when they're like 12-13 years old (earlier for Gretzky). You look at the top scorers from the Brick Tournament(9-10 year old kids play in that tournament) from 10 years ago (https://www.eliteprospects.com/league/brick-invitational/201...), 3 of the top 5 scorers were drafted in the first round, and the top goalie was Team Canada's goalie at the world juniors.

edit: went back a few more years, lots of NHLers in the top 5 in scoring in the tournament, but some years are more miss than hit.

[hn_acc1]

Gretzky is well-known for saying he thinks kids should play multiple sports and avoid hockey in the summer, like he did (IIRC) - he mentioned soccer, etc.

[bsder]

> from sports i know (hockey), generally the next generational player is identified when they're like 12-13 years old (earlier for Gretzky).

Yeah, I'm really unconvinced by the paper.

1) Adult chess GMs all come from super advanced kids, now. Period. GM Ben Finegold talks about this at length.

2) We know that, for example, hockey success is correlated with birth month. This means that juniors who happen to be slightly larger and promising get more attention and coaching and so wind up being the world class adults, too.

I could be more convinced by academics and music that you need multi-disciplinary education to be world class, but I'd need to see a lot more evidence.

Nevertheless, the single thing I extract from my anecdata is that being top ten in a world class field requires a dedication bordering on psychotic mania. You have to be willing to not just go the extra mile but the mile beyond that and beyond that and ...

Most people are completely put out by the minimal amount of effort to get to the top 1% so they would be stunned by the amount of work you have to put in to get to top 10.

[kelipso]

Yeah, top 10 chess players all spent their teen years constantly playing or practicing chess. Most of them quit school and/or don’t go to college.

Top 10 player who started the latest is probably Yasser Seirawan at 12 years old but most start between 6-10 years old.

[boogieknite]

in contrast: the sport i know best, hoops, a common pattern for generational players is for them to be late bloomers because they grow up short, developing skills and competitive toughness, then get lucky and grow a half-foot late in puberty

[soperj]

who is that? Not Lebron, definitely not Jokic, SGA was 4 star recruit?

[everly]

David Robinson was an example of this.

[scns]

Denis Rodman started very late.

[hyperbovine]

Hakeem Olajuwon famously started playing basketball in college. He had some … other gifts tho.

[soperj]

I don't think that's true.

[boogieknite]

mj had a growth spurt his jr year of hs (the rest of his family is < 6') scottie had a giant growth spurt in college (was a walk on point guard and was 6') kelly olynyk is a local example of a guy who grew late in hs (also a pg before growing). bill walton was normal tall, his brothers are 6'3"ish (nba pg height), but then shot up 8 inches to 6'10" his jr year of hs. many many examples. Robinson for sure the most drastic bc he grew in the navy

now that you mention it, you have a good point that it seems less common lately

[darkfloo]

Can also offer anecdotal support from esports I know about (League of Legends , StarCraft 2, and counterstrike) For StarCraft 2 the best historical players are all child prodigies , same for Formula 1 , all recent World Champions are child prodigies

[Mgtyalx]

The problem being: access to a prestiges career or opportunity is generally predicated on climbing the academics achievement ladder at an increasingly early age. This leaves the more esoteric people out in the cold. If your not a true prodigy whose achievements outshine the highly credentialed you will struggle to get on.

[nradov]

In the tech industry, some of the people with the most prestigious careers are literally college dropouts. There are many paths to success, not all are linear.

[heavenlyblue]

Most of these people are not esoteric though and come from privileged families :)