[1-more]

All we need to do is create Kalshi contracts! Users bet that a fix won't be created for Issue 123 by date XYZ, developers take the other side of the contract and then do the best kind of insider trading: changing the facts on the ground. We did it!

[munk-a]

And a few weeks into that arbitrage traders will catch wind and start betting on the more likely bug closures and then the devs that fix the bug will end up owing money!

[gcr]

Then, the people who actually want the fix will bet it back up so the dev is incentivized to fix it!

[intended]

People who work on making money, tend to have more money and leverage. It’s not an even playing field.

[1-more]

There are bribing and HFT opportunities here too. The fix developer is incentivized to wait until the last possible moment to take the position "the PR addressing the bug will be merged by the date" so that the contract will be the cheapest for them to buy and represent the greatest profit when the PR is opened or merged. What's a savvy speculator on the sidelines to do? After the PR is opened, bribe the project maintainer not to accept the PR by that date so they can turn a sure-thing "Yes" into a huge upset "No." Or watch the developer's github for green shower tiles to see activity in private repos. But the developer can throw up chaff that by scripting bunches of commits in other private repos, or changing the commit dates for the bug fixes to be a year ago. The speculator can monitor the developer's posts in language/topic forums or on social media to get a feel for their progress. If they're really connected, maybe they can see their AI agent/chatbot logs through an insider in one of those companies.

This idea rocks because eventually someone is going to get blackmailed with their affair history over, like, adding native XLSX support to FFMPEG. Can't wait. Financialize everything.