[bell-cot]

If it's WWIII, and you're using ballistic missiles against satellite constellations, then either:

- You are not targeting individual satellites; you're setting off nuclear warheads in space, and relying on the EMP to disable all satellites within a large radius of the blast - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_electromagnetic_pulse

or

- You're nuking the ground-based command & control centers for those satellites. Again, nothing like 10,000 missiles needed.

(Or both.)

To target 10,000 satellites directly, the "obvious" weapon would be a few satellite-launch rockets, lofting tons of BB's (or little steel bolts, or whatever) - which would become a sort of long-duration artillery barrage shrapnel in orbit.

[jeroenhd]

> - You're nuking the ground-based command & control centers for those satellites. Again, nothing like 10,000 missiles needed.

With Starlink's peer-to-peer capabilities, hitting every single ground station and keeping the satellites from working through new ground stations may actually be quite difficult.

Starlink orbits close enough that they're looking into offering LTE coverage from "space". You don't need a giant dish to access the satellites, which means building new ground stations and reprogramming the network from an unassuming-looking ground device to use them is quite feasible.

The paths of the satellites are rather predictable, though, so your shrapnel attack executed with some precision should clear out enough of them.

The moment you launch a nuke (even if just to set off an EMP), you can expect nukes to come your way in retaliation before your nuke even detonates. Unless whatever war is going on has already gone full nuclear, I don't think nuclear weaponry is a viable move to take out satellites.

[bell-cot]

> With Starlink's peer-to-peer capabilities, hitting every single ground station and keeping the satellites from working through new ground stations may actually be quite difficult.

Yes-ish? I was thinking the command & control facilities - far scarcer than the (probably unmanned) StarLink-to-Internet Backbone connection ground stations.

> The moment you launch a nuke...

Yes-ish. The (great-)^n grandparent comment posited WWIII starting, and the nukes flying at scale. Between the widespread obliteration of ground-side infrastructure, ground-side EMP damage, and very likely EMP in space - I'd assume that Starlink would quickly go down. Plus, the ionosphere could become opaque to Starlink's radio frequencies. Finally, the ionosphere's upper layers might expand enough (due to nuclear detonations in or near space) that the orbits of the Starlink satellites started degrading very quickly.

With how easily any major space power could set off "small n" nukes in space during a major crisis, to knock out satellites - I would not rule someone doing so. The responsible parties need not claim responsibility. And sane leaders might hesitate to go full nuclear in response.

[NetMageSCW]

The BB idea doesn’t really work either- if they are in orbit they circle with the satellites and don’t hit anything, if they are at different speeds they are in different orbits and fly above and below the satellites and miss, if they cross the orbit SpaceX just moves the satellites to miss.

[bell-cot]

"Circle with the satellites" is not how orbits work. Do a Google image search for satellite ground tracks, and observe how those tracks repeatedly cross each other. In LEO, a 90 degree orbital crossing represents a relative velocity of >10km/s. (Normally, collisions do not happen because the satellites are under control, and everyone is making ongoing efforts to avoid collision. Kinda like how cars & trucks normally don't hit pedestrians.)

BB's - https://www.amazon.com/bulk-bbs/s?k=bulk+bbs - run roughly 3,000 to the kg. And are far too small to individually track in orbit - https://clasp.engin.umich.edu/2023/12/06/tracking-undetectab...

Bottom line - a "3 tons to LEO" satellite launch vehicle could put ~10,000,000 untrackable little metal objects into orbit, crossing satellite orbits at lethal velocities. Trivial methods, such as dispersing the BB's with small explosive charges, could randomize their individual orbits.

The satellite operators have very good reason to be concerned about such "low tech" anti-satellite weapons.