[gonzo41]

What would you consider real decline?

I would say children having worse prospects than their parents at the same age is a good indicator of it. The big issues IMO are: The housing market locking out young people and The jobs market being brutal to graduates.

Things are not so great at the moment.

[JumpCrisscross]

> What would you consider real decline?

Honestly? When America nukes someone or itself. Empires decline slowly then suddenly, and that final bit tends to involve a tantrum. The only exception is when they’re conquered.

[tasuki]

> I would say children having worse prospects than their parents at the same age is a good indicator of it.

People talk about "worse prospects" all the time. It irks me: you know nothing what your "prospects" are. That's why they're prospects!

> The big issues IMO are: The housing market locking out young people

The housing is still there. All those old people are gonna die. Who do you think will get the housing?

[cal_dent]

i think they'll be lots of kids out there banking on inheritance who will find themselves surprised by how much aged and end of life care cost soon

[rawgabbit]

In the US, once you are in an elder care facility and you run out of money, the facility will try to keep you in. At that time they will apply to Medicaid in your name. After you die, Medicaid will try to claw back funds by putting a lien against your house. There are extremely complicated rules about exemptions etc.

https://apnews.com/article/medicaid-estate-recovery-nursing-...

[tasuki]

Sure, if someone wants to get rid of their parents in a humane 21st-century way, by way of an elder care facility, it probably costs a lot.

People used to die living with their family. Perhaps they died earlier, and sure there were some problems with that setup, but I don't think it was necessarily worse for the dying. It was certainly cheaper for everyone.

I don't know anyone who wanted to go to an elder care home. My grandma spent her last three months in an elder care home: all she talked about was going home.

[cal_dent]

I agree with the sentiment of this post but there is also a consideration here that the world has moved on from a non-elder care end of life for many. Jobs have become increasingly concentrated in certain cities, which has prompted more migration away from many people's place of birth (whether town, region or country). You also have many people having much smaller homes relative to the past because they've moved to high density cities for jobs. Their ability to just have their parents in the home isn't so straightforward anymore.

[Grum9]

In the middle of it right now with a grandparent. $5000 - $8000 month and you might still find them frozen to death out in the snow if the staff drops the ball in the middle of the night.

[philistine]

The housing is a house, but it's also a financial vehicle to wealth accumulation. Younger generations have been shut out of that wealth. When the old people are dead can we be so sure the wealth enrichment mechanisms will be left standing?

[Tadpole9181]

We know for a fact it won't. Care systems and demograph-targeting machines (sunsetter vacations, scams, etc) are siphoning every drop of wealth from the elderly.