[daxfohl]

The whole AGI industry is like one of those projects that claims "90% finished" from the time of the first demo, then for the next N years, all the way up until the project is eventually canceled.

Yeah we can spew out millions of lines of unmaintainable slop code! Now we can even write a slop unusable browser!

All this shit looks like progress, but it's all really a cover for lack of progress. And now we've got the entire economy as a bet on it.

None of this is to say there's nothing useful coming out of the industry. I use it productively for a ton of things. But, the reverse centaur thing is a great analogy. The money getting ploughed into it is assuming reverse centaur will be the final outcome, not a set of useful productivity tools. Once investors start to realize that all we're going to get out of it is the latter, we'll be in for a world of hurt.

Granted, one nice thing about the AI wave is that I bet it'll be able to keep slinging new and idiotic slop for decades that'll keep successfully unburdening investors from their money, because, "hey look, it's 90% finished!" Who knows, maybe that's the point.