[themaninthedark]

China doesn't seem to think so.

>"The top uniformed soldier in China, chairman of China's Central Military Commission, stated that war with the United States is inevitable," Coffman said. "That is the first time China has made that statement publicly."

https://www.military.com/daily-news/2021/03/11/china-declare...

Would you say the same thing about Russia, Is that a fabricated narrative? Why or why not?

[contrarian1234]

Russia is not an active economic rival. If they weren't actively attacking neighbors and interfere with governments around the world they would be basically irrelevant. I think the situation is radically different from China. Russia seems to have intentionally positioned themselves as enemies b.c it's part of their identity and the government's attempt to retain some relevance on the international stage

[themaninthedark]

I was commenting more on: >China as the enemy is a fabricated narrative, bc culturally we seem to have a need to have another cold war, we need a "bad guy"

Than the economic rival aspect.

Because that was exactly what the Democratic party narrative was in 2012, with similar views echoed in Europe.

>Romney's claim drew a memorable slam from Obama during a presidential debate: "The 1980s, they're now calling to ask for their foreign policy back," Obama said, seeking to paint Romney as out of touch on a key foreign policy issue.

>Albright, who similarly criticized Romney in 2012, said she'd "underestimated" Russia back then.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/abcnews.go.com/amp/Politics/yea...

>The EU and Russia are not only neighbours but strategic partners who cooperate on a wide range of bilateral and global challenges, based on joint commitments and shared interests.

https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/memo_1...

>In 2014, Russia’s annexation of Crimea and its military intervention in eastern Ukraine following Ukraine’s intention to sign an Association Agreement (AA) with the European Union caught the EU by surprise.

https://eu.boell.org/en/2017/07/03/eu-russia-relations-towar...

[contrarian1234]

Are you trying to say there is a parallel in that the right voices read the tea leaves correctly and knew that Russia was going to be a crazy rogue state? And that similarly, there are signs China is going to get super belligerent in the future?

I would first say that what happened with Russia, at least to me, did not seem inevitable even with hindsight. I don't think Romney had some keen foresight - more like a lucky guess.

I also don't really see the same happening with China, though it's of course possible. A sudden economic downturn could trigger a need for an external enemy and a conflict.

But a military conflict between the US and China just seems like an absurd fantasy. It'd how you end up with a nuclear war and the death of millions. I don't think the Chinese secretly want this in the long run. They want peace and more business and more wealth

[themaninthedark]

I don't think Romney had some keen foresight either, he just saw the tension that existed between Russia and their neighbors and didn't take the rose tinted one world, everything is going to work out view.

What you term 'crazy rogue state' is just countries looking at their own self interests.

India and Pakistan have been fighting. Thailand and Cambodia have been fighting. Which of those are rogue?

China has made large territory claims in the ocean and is in conflict with it's neighbors over that.

Maybe they are closer to being a rogue state than you think.

[thaumasiotes]

>> "The top uniformed soldier in China, chairman of China's Central Military Commission, stated that war with the United States is inevitable," Coffman said.

Do we have something better than some English-language hearsay from five years ago? I tried looking for more on this and found nothing.

I did discover that Xu Qiliang died last June. I doubt he's going to have much influence going forward.

[themaninthedark]

Not sure how to find a primary source, I am only finding news reporting on the speech.

https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1409929/China-news-US-w...

5 years ago is not that long ago and we were at the start of the Biden administration then. With Trump back in office are relationships better or more inflamed?

>I did discover that Xu Qiliang died last June. I doubt he's going to have much influence going forward.

Unelected leadership in top positions are generally not just pushing their own agenda, especially in autocratic governments. Any speech or statement is highly considered and controlled, that statement should be taken as policy unless it is retracted.

[thaumasiotes]

Just that Express link already contradicts the quote from Coffman:

> General Xu Qiliang, China’s second in command of the armed forces after President Xi Jinping, said an increase in military spending is need[ed] to counter the ‘Thucydides Trap’.

> Maj. Gen. Richard Coffman, director of the US Army's Next Generation Combat Vehicle Cross Functional Team, saw the remarks as a clear admission war was “inevitable”.

> He said: “The top uniformed soldier in China, chairman of China's Central Military Commission, stated that war with the United States is inevitable.

Allow me to suggest that "this a way to counter the Thucydides trap" cannot actually be paraphrased as "war is inevitable".

[thaumasiotes]

> Not sure how to find a primary source

I asked Tencent's Hunyuan LLM the following:

>> 我听说许其亮在2021年的时候说到美国和修昔底德陷阱，我想找他说出的话

Here is the Google Translate rendition of the response. I'll reply to myself with the original Chinese LLM response.

There are pointers here toward finding an official transcript, but the LLM summary tends to suggest it wouldn't be worth the effort, barring some indication that Richard Coffman knew what he was talking about.

Anyway:

-----

Comrade Xu Qiliang, as a leader of the Party and the state, has delivered important remarks on international relations and strategic security on multiple occasions. Regarding the "Thucydides Trap" you mentioned, our verification confirms that in 2021, he did address his views on the United States and great power competition in relevant meetings or speeches. The following are the core points compiled from publicly available reports (the specific wording should be based on official releases):

Key points of Comrade Xu Qiliang's remarks on the United States and the "Thucydides Trap" in 2021:

He pointed out that the current international strategic landscape is undergoing profound changes. The United States and other Western countries are clinging to Cold War thinking, pursuing unilateralism and hegemonism, deliberately creating ideological confrontation and geopolitical competition, and attempting to contain and suppress China's development through means such as the "Indo-Pacific Strategy." Essentially, this is imposing the outdated logic of the "Thucydides Trap" on great power relations, which is a misinterpretation of historical laws and a reversal of the trend of the times.

He emphasized that China has always adhered to the path of peaceful development and firmly pursued a defensive national defense policy. China has no intention of engaging in a zero-sum game of "a rising power inevitably challenges the established power" with the United States. As the world's two largest economies and permanent members of the UN Security Council, cooperation between China and the US benefits both sides, while confrontation harms both. They should abandon confrontational thinking, respect each other's core interests and major concerns, manage differences and promote cooperation on the basis of mutual respect, equality, and mutual benefit, and jointly safeguard world peace, stability, and prosperity.

He also pointed out that the "Thucydides Trap" is not historically inevitable. The key lies in whether great powers can transcend the logic of "a rising power inevitably challenges the established power," establish correct perceptions, and build a new type of international relations. China is willing to work with the United States to promote the building of a China-US relationship that is non-confrontational, mutually respectful, and mutually beneficial, providing new ideas for resolving the "Thucydides Trap."

Note:

The above content is a summary based on publicly available reports. The specific original text should be based on the full text of the speeches published by official media such as Xinhua News Agency and the People's Liberation Army Daily. To access the complete speech, it is recommended to obtain authoritative information through the following channels:

* Visit the China Military Online website (http://www.81.cn) or the Ministry of National Defense website (http://www.mod.gov.cn) and search for relevant meeting reports from 2021;

* Consult Volume 4 of "Xi Jinping on Governance of China" and news releases from the National People's Congress, the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference, and important military meetings of that year;

* Follow special reports from central media outlets such as Xinhua News Agency and People's Daily.

For further verification, please provide more specific meeting context (such as the National People's Congress PLA delegation meeting, the Central Military Commission enlarged meeting, etc.) to facilitate a more precise search.

-----

[thaumasiotes]

许其亮同志作为党和国家的领导人，在多个场合就国际关系和战略安全等问题发表过重要论述。关于您提到的“修昔底德陷阱”相关内容，经核查，2021年他在相关会议或讲话中确实涉及对美国及大国竞争的看法，以下是根据公开报道整理的核心观点（具体表述以官方发布为准）： 许其亮同志在2021年关于美国与“修昔底德陷阱”的相关论述要点：

他指出，当前国际战略格局深刻演变，美国等西方国家固守冷战思维，推行单边主义、霸权主义，刻意制造意识形态对立和地缘博弈，试图通过“印太战略”等手段围堵遏制中国发展，本质上是将“修昔底德陷阱”的陈旧逻辑强加于大国关系，这是对历史规律的误读和对时代潮流的逆动。

他强调，中国始终坚持走和平发展道路，坚定奉行防御性国防政策，无意也不会与美国搞“国强必霸”的零和博弈。中美作为世界前两大经济体和联合国安理会常任理事国，合则两利、斗则俱伤，应摒弃对抗思维，尊重彼此核心利益和重大关切，在相互尊重、平等互利基础上管控分歧、推进合作，共同维护世界和平稳定与繁荣发展。

他还指出，“修昔底德陷阱”并非历史必然，关键在于大国能否超越“国强必霸”的逻辑，树立正确认知、构建新型国际关系。中国愿与美国一道，推动构建不冲突不对抗、相互尊重、合作共赢的中美关系，为破解“修昔底德陷阱”提供新思路。 说明：

以上内容为基于公开报道的概括整理，具体原文需以新华社、《解放军报》等官方媒体发布的讲话全文为准。如需查阅完整讲话，建议通过以下途径获取权威信息：

    访问中国军网（http://www.81.cn）或国防部官网（http://www.mod.gov.cn）搜索2021年相关会议报道；

    查阅《习近平谈治国理政》第四卷及当年全国两会、军队重要会议的新闻通稿；

    关注新华社、人民日报等中央媒体的专题报道。

如需进一步核实，可提供更具体的会议背景（如全国人大解放军代表团会议、中央军委扩大会议等），以便精准检索。

[throw310822]

FWIW, Xu Qiliang said that war with the United States is inevitable because of the "Thucydides Trap", the theory that an incumbent power is not going to accept the rise of a competing power. In that case, the war would be started by the current ruling power, not by the rising power. I.e., by the US.

In 2014, Xi Jinping had already said "China fully understands that we need a peaceful and stable internal and external environment to develop ourselves. We all need to work together to avoid the Thucydides trap - destructive tensions between an emerging power and established powers … Our aim is to foster a new model of major country relations."

[kelipso]

China kind of avoided the Thicydides trap already it looks like. Trump’s national security strategy document has indicated that the US is going to shore up around the Americas instead of doing the global hegemony strategy. And there have been statements made by US military people (Hegseth maybe) indicating that the US can’t militarily take on China near their coast anymore.