[montenegrohugo]

Surely the extrapolation is wrong?

at 4 heads, just randomly select a jury of 3. and you're back on track.

at a million heads, just sum up all their guesses, divide by one million, and then check the over/under of 0.50

[auc]

For 4 vs 3, you’re saying the same thing.

He wrote:

If our number N of friends is odd, our chances of guessing correctly don’t improve when we move to N+1 friends.

[strken]

I misread the article too, but it states that with 3 or 4 on the jury the probability has increased to 0.9, instead of 0.8 with 1 or 2. It's just that an incremental extra jury member from odd to even never increases the information, even when it's 9999 to 10000.