[jaybyrd]

its seemed very deeply like we (i live in the united states) are going to be getting into a conflict with iran FARRRR more likely than a conflict with greenland despite active threats from the president. iran just feels more like something we would get involved in, The Sandbox TM

[observationist]

The idea of conflict with Greenland is kayfabe - it's all posturing and bombast. There's a significant probability that the Trump admin attempts and possibly succeeds at buying Greenland. Not usual for the last 5-6 decades, but in a historic context, fairly normal for nations to do this type of thing. There are legitimate strategic and economic arguments for it - not sure that I buy the arguments, but I can certainly entertain the ideas.

Iran is a sticky situation. It looks like the Trump admin is poised to chip in some missiles if it looks like they can tip the balance definitively for the protesters, but according to the intel accounts, the current positioning of assets means they're still at least a few days away from acting. That could be a deception and at any moment the current regime could get erased, so it's probably prudent to get the hell out of Dodge before the missiles start flying, or before the total crackdown and enforcement gets escalated, in the other direction.

[ekropotin]

> The idea of conflict with Greenland is kayfabe - it's all posturing and bombast

Given the times we live in, I won’t rule out any, even most crazy, possibilities.

If someone told me (Russian) 20 years ago that we’ll invade Ukraine, I’d think it’s some kind of terrible joke. But here we are.

[tptacek]

My rubric for Greenland is to watch what Europe does. If European NATO allies station troops and naval assets in/around Greenland (or demand SOFA changes at Ramstein, stuff like that), I'll believe they're taking it seriously. Right now the sense I get --- totally uneducated take, but it's a message board not the Sit Room --- is that Europe sees this as a media fight and little else.

[recursivecaveat]

I remember the last time I dropped by my friend's house, casually put my pistol on the table, and told him I'd start shooting his family unless he sold me his flatscreen. Extremely normal and not coercive negotiating posturing between two good friends (:

[lovich]

I remember those halcyon days long in the past in the ancient days of 2024 when the idea that we might invade another country with this admin at the helm was poo pood as extremism.

Luckily the Greenland situation is different and we definitely haven’t been going through weekly events “that could never happen”.

As we all know, President Trump is completely comfortable with the word “no” and has been the greatest defender of international law and diplomacy between sovereign nations.

[WhatIsDukkha]

The term absurdist pro-wrestling term "kayfabe" appears to be an attempt to pretend there are adults in the room in these situations.

We've seen from the last years that's itself a deception to allow the right wing intelligentsia to excuse the erratic choices and profound damage to US international power.

Its an extension of the old Soviet propaganda tool "if everything is a lie, anything can be true".