[crazygringo]

> Apple's weather app still isn't as precise or accurate

Is it not? The rainfall-per-minute over the next hour on iOS seems about the same accuracy as Dark Sky had -- I used Dark Sky for years. It wasn't perfect but it worked well enough, same as iOS did after. You can even scrub the precipitation map predictions and they look the same to me.

I know the Dark Sky prediction accuracy was greatly dependent on where you lived -- this is something that was widely discussed back in the day. If you've seen a drop in accuracy, did you simply move?

[postalcoder]

I used the Dark Sky app since it came out in 2012. I used to consistently get notifications about precipitation with Dark Sky, that were consistently accurate. The Apple weather application seems less motivated to send me notifications with any sort of regularity. I almost never get them now, even with fresh iOS installs. I haven't moved either.

And just anecdotally, Dark Sky was a delight to use. Apple Maps makes it a chore to extract the same utility from their app.

[crazygringo]

OK, notifications aren't the same as accuracy though. Neither is delight. I'm just talking about the supposed drop in accuracy that I just don't see.

(And Apple notifications are a mess generally. I constantly have notifications for something yesterday only show up today. I'm not sure that has anything to do with Weather specifically, their whole notification priority system is borked.)

[natebc]

I think the point was (and i'm certain my experience is) that with Apple Weather you just don't get the notifications at all (or rarely do) so it's very hard to get a feeling as to how accurate they are.

[postalcoder]

Yes, this is what I meant. I don't know what the notification thresholds are, so I use the fact that I'm getting a notification at all as a proxy for accuracy.

[crazygringo]

Got it. Yeah, where I am it's usually pretty obvious that it's probably going to rain in the next hour or two, so I look at the chart to see exactly when. I don't rely on notifications. So for me the accuracy seems the same. But if you're basing it on notifications then I could totally see why you could have a different impression.

I think -- and I might be wrong, since this is from over a decade ago -- that when I first used Dark Sky, I ended up disabling notifications because it would constantly warn me of precipitation, but then when I checked the graph there was none because the model had since updated, and I wound up turning them off. So notification thresholds are probably something hard to get right, and what is appropriate for one geographic area might not be optimal for another.

[natebc]

Back then (2010-2013ish) I was driving a motorcycle primarily so I was hyper aware of the immediate weather and Dark Sky was like magic in that use case.

[lisp2240]

Dark Sky would say “Light rain staring in 4 minutes and ending in 17 minutes” and that’s what would happen.

Apple Weather is nothing like this.

[okrad]

Anecdotally, I agree with the parent comment.

Lived in the same general area (just outside a major metropolitan area) where I use DarkSky and now Apple Weather app.

DarkSky has better data vis and more reliable prediction. Apple Weather consistently over predicts snow fall amounts and many times I’ve had to use the Feedback to correct it on current conditions (e.g. raining when it says no rain or vice versa). I believe DarkSky had the same feedback feature but I never needed it this much.

Most of the time AW is fine but it’s less good to the point I’ve considered alternatives.

[gcanyon]

I haven't done the stats, so I should probably have said "Apple's weather app still doesn't seem as precise or accurate"

That said, I'd still bet a dollar (that to be fair, I might lose) that Apple today is less accurate, and if they're just as accurate twelve years on, that's a fail as well.

[nate]

Haven't moved for years, but yeah same over here. Darksky data seemed perfect and now no matter what source of data I use in places like Carrot or the ios weather app gives me the accuracy Darksky had. Is it just climate change? I have no idea, but I agree, accuracy seems lost now without Darksky proper.

[chrneu]

checkout forecastadvisor.com and see what's the best for your area.

I've sort of transitioned to using Ventusky and Windy to checkout the big picture stuff, then I make up my own mind about precipitation. I live in the PNW of the US and our terrain is so varied that forecasting services are kind of meh in general. They're decent for "it might rain for a while today" but anything hyperlocal tends to get bad because of the terrain in Oregon.

[growt]

Probably depends on where you are, but here in Europe I always joke that you should prepare for the exact opposite of what apple weather tells you. A lot of times I’m literary standing in the rain and Apple tells me the chance for rain is 0%

[crazygringo]

Right, but Dark Sky had that issue too. When precipitation has hyperlocal variation, you're always going to have that problem.

The Doppler radar that "live" precipitation comes from takes 4-6 min to complete a scan, and then obviously it takes a few minutes for that all to be ingested, update models, and push to devices.

The "live" weather from Apple (and when it was Dark Sky) has always been a prediction from about 10 min ago. And if it's raining where you are but dry six blocks to the north (as happens all the time), it's understandable why it gets it wrong.

[chrneu]

Dark Sky almost always over predicted rain for my area. I think that was kind of their strategy. That said, I very much miss Dark Sky on android.

Also I really like a tool called Forecast Advisor. https://www.forecastadvisor.com/ . It shows you the accuracy of various forecasting services for your area.

I use it whenever I travel. I don't stick with one forecast site because depending on the terrain/location their accuracy changes drastically.

Certain models are better for certain geographical features depending on the location. I tend to hangout around a lot of mountains and the difference in forecast models makes a huge difference.

[rootusrootus]

That is basically my impression here in the US PNW. If it tells me rain is about to start at my location, the one thing I know with 100% certainty is that rain is not about to start any time soon.