| > There is no census scheduled for 2027 2027 is the expectation, since it's supposed to be at least every ten years. > Numbers of deaths aren't being estimated from WhatApp chats. Unfortunately they are. [1] was based on messages in "X (formerly Twitter), Instagram, Facebook, WhatsApp, and Telegram". An example of content they scraped is [2], but they also included non-public chats in WhatsApp etc. > The most widely agreed upon estimates are based on morgue data, which if anything should undercount the actual death toll as plenty of bodies never make it to a morgue operated by health professionals. This isn't the case even for GHM's official counts. Anyone can report a Gazan "martyr" or missing person on a web form right here [3]. Those get included in GHM's counts, if they pass basic checks like the existence of that name and ID. > That's not what one significant digit means. I think the concept still applies, though I should have said zero significant digits, since "tens of thousands" implies an exponent but zero digits of the mantissa. But my point is that responsible estimates involve acknowledgement of uncertainty. > I believe everyone is in agreement that the death toll of the gaza war was likewise in the tens of thousands. Most of Israel's critics are not satisfied with Hamas' ~70k casualty figure, and seek out higher estimates like the aforementioned one that used WhatsApp chats. For example, a HNer yesterday wrote "They've killed people in the hundreds of thousands in Gaza now." [1] https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6... [2] https://www.instagram.com/martyrs_gaza/ [3] https://sehatty.ps/moh-registration/public/add-order |