[hannasanarion]

No rebellion or revolt had ever been successful without arms supplied from outside sponsors.

Random personal small arms that a bunch of people just happen to have at home are not enough to win a revolutionary war against a professional military.

Self defense pistols and hunting rifles don't win wars, artillery does.

[zozbot234]

> Random personal small arms that a bunch of people just happen to have at home are not enough to win a revolutionary war against a professional military.

They're absolutely enough to tip the scales in favor of those within that professional military who would rather support the prospective revolution. Such people will definitely exist given a widespread revolt against a violently oppressive regime.

[runlaszlorun]

IoT and clean comms do.

Yes random small arms make quite a difference in many scenarios. I can say this with zero commentary on whether one feels society broadly should have more guns.

[keketi]

How about this: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_Nepalese_Gen_Z_protests#9...

September 9, 2025 - Protesters storm the Nepalese parliament, ransacking it and setting it on fire. Homes of leading politicians are also torched and the politicians themselves attacked.

Soon thereafter, the prime minister resigned along with other ministers and the president dissolved the parliament and scheduled a new election.

I think that counts as a successful rebellion or revolt.

[hannasanarion]

The Gen Z revolution would have gone nowhere had the Nepalese Military not launched a coup, removed the existing government from power at gunpoint, and asked the protesters who to replace them with.

So, fine, there's a third condition: when the entire military mutinies, leaving the regime with no armed defenders.

[WillPostForFood]

Russian Revolution? French Revolution?

[hannasanarion]

* or mass-scale mutinies from the military itself giving the revolutionaries access to artillery, tanks, planes, and ships while the regime has none.

[esseph]

Ehhhh.

I know a LOT of folks in the US that are regular citizens with plate carriers, night vision, thermals, suppressors, and forced-reset triggers.

A lot of them have better training that most leg infantry, and many are veterans.

[actionfromafar]

Besides, if you start to turn random American cities into Gaza style rubble with artillery, the military will also break into factions.