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by JumpCrisscross 167 days ago
> My hot take: We’re already in a recession

Personal-savings rate says we're heading into a recession, but aren't yet in one [1]. Labour-force participation, on the other hand, suggests we may be [2].

Assuming we go into another shutdown at the end of the month, none of this may be clear until well into the autumn.

[1] https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PSAVERT

[2] https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CIVPART

1 comments

The prime age (25-54 years old) labor force participation rate disagrees.[1] It's almost the highest it's ever been and steady.

[1] https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LNS11300060