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by kurtis_reed
167 days ago
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Suppose there are 1000 events and 500 will have outcome A and 500 will have outcome B. If you predict a 50% chance of A for every event you'll be perfectly calibrated. On the other hand, if you predict a 90% chance of a certain outcome and you're right for 800 events, you're not perfectly calibrated but you have a lower Brier score (lower is better). |
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