[lxgr]

You seem to be arguing that that's the canonical definition of a prediction market, and anything else, including markets merely aggregating non-insider beliefs about future events, should be called something else. Do you have a better proposal?

[tptacek]

I don't need one.

[lxgr]

Sure, but then discussions about these types of markets are bound to become somewhat confusing for purely nominalistic reasons. (Turns out not every hard naming problem is automatically computer science :)