[tptacek]

I would argue that a "market" in whether it will rain on Saturday isn't really a prediction market, or even a market, at all. It's just a bookmaking operation. The core function of any market, in anything, is price discovery.

What's the difference between a "Monday it will rain" market and a NCAAF prop bet on a team's rushing yards? I could argue that DraftKings prop bets are actually more like prediction markets than these "will it rain" bets. People actually do have directional information to contribute to sports propositions!

(I think online sports betting is evil.)

[kasey_junk]

Tradeable risk is the difference between the ncaaf bet and rain futures. Levine has joked that perhaps there is some tenuous way that sports gambling is poolable risk to owners, players and coaches but there is real and obvious economic utility with rain. Neither get the advantages of prediction markets.

[JumpCrisscross]

> would argue that a "market" in whether it will rain on Saturday isn't really a prediction market, or even a market, at all. It's just a bookmaking operation

How would you define the difference?

Cat bond premiums absolutely bet on near-term weather odds. I’d argue they’re prediction-esque.

[lxgr]

What would you then call, for example, the markets for weather futures on the CME? https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/weather.html

Are you arguing that weather forecasts (based on either sophisticated modeling or just extrapolating average historical data) are not a thing?