[0xDEAFBEAD]

People forget that Iraq was a key wedge issue which allowed Trump to gain mindshare within the GOP:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H4ThZcq1oJQ

A fairly optimistic way to spin this situation is as follows. Either it somehow works out for Venezuela, in which case we effectively helped millions of people Homer Simpson style. Or, more likely, failure disgraces Trump the same way it disgraced GWB. Then (fingers crossed) we elect a humbler, more realistic leader who works to rebuild the country we wrecked, and we can move on from the Trump era.

[microtonal]

Why would Trump allow a peaceful transfer of power? Jan 6 happened and it failed because the first Trump administration still had people who cared about the rule of law (e.g. Pence).

I think the only hope is that the guy is old and unhealthy, in contrast to e.g. when Putin or Orban grabbed power. And it is possible that the GOP will fracture over fights between who see themselves as his successor. If this doesn't happen, I don't have much hope for the US as a democracy.

[0xDEAFBEAD]

I'm not sure he has enough support in the deep state to pull it off.