[estearum]

> If Maduro is gone, it's a good thing.

Agree with your overall sentiment but this is just a ridiculous position to hold at this point. History is absolutely full of horrible people being toppled just for more horrible people to take their place. There is literally no evidence whatsoever of a plan for post-Maduro Venezuela. At all!

They're either acting completely clueless for the cameras for some unknown reason, or this is very likely going to go really badly.

[stickfigure]

Venezuela has already been going really badly, by nearly any quantitative metric of "how going". This is a country that - a couple decades ago - was a rare success story of democracy and prosperity in Latin America.

I think the Venezuelans will work it out, despite Trump's ineptitude.

[estearum]

I see this sentiment around here a lot and I just have to laugh.

Things going badly does not mean — even at all — that things cannot go much much worse.

Libya was bad and got worse

Syria was bad and got worse

Afghanistan was bad and got worse

Sudan was bad and got worse

In fact, nearly every really bad situation was already bad, and then it got worse.

[stickfigure]

I can appreciate that but taken to its conclusion it's a recipe for paralysis and complacency. It always could be worse, so let's just let sit here and let shit happen?

Unlike all those places you mention, Venezuela has a democratic tradition which was only recently derailed. This isn't some middle eastern theocratic monarchy. It's "get back on track" not "find new tracks where none existed before".

[estearum]

No, shit can always get worse so act carefully and with a plan.

I and many others are asking for evidence of such a plan. The US administration has denied the existence of such a plan.

Maybe those factors you mention will turn out to be relevant or even determinative, and maybe not. I suspect in absence of an actual plan, the mere tradition of democracy will not suffice.

[stickfigure]

The Trump administration is incompetent to manage a pre-school, let alone world affairs. We're not going to get a plan. The best we can hope for is an occasional random steps vaguely in the right direction.

Maduro in prison is an improvement from Maduro still in power. Accept it as a tiny win and move on.

[estearum]

Frankly insane position to hold ~24 hours after the events and with the information currently available.

You are aware you're allowed to say, "it'll take some time for this to shake out sufficiently to understand whether it's a tiny win, a huge win, net-neutral, or regionally catastrophic," right?