[yes_really]

> The US should not be the decider of who stays in power on another country.

As opposed to what? Who "should" be the decider? China? Russia? Maduro? The Venezuelan Military?

The alternative is not that Venezuelans choose who stays in power democratically. The alternative, as we just saw until now, is that the Maduro dictatorship maintains power through force.

[DrProtic]

You seem to think US did this because Maduro was a dictator. They themselves clarified it's because of oil.

Why they don't attack Saudi Arabia then? Saudi's even had a role in 9/11.

Decades of lies shaped the narrative that all invasions US do is because countries have dictators, it's being the narrative even now when they explicitly say it's because of oil.

[cragfar]

They didn't do it because of oil (well to take for ourselves). They did it because Venezuela has been cozying up way too much to Russia and China, and sending both of them a lot of oil.

[Tadpole9181]

The President of the United States quite literally plainly stated on national TV that we did it for oil and will be sending US oil companies in to steal their oil to sell for ourselves.

[deepsquirrelnet]

He even went so far as to say it was “our” oil a few weeks ago. That was quickly forgotten among a stream of other outrageous things that happen daily.

Today seems like a day to rewatch Team America: World Police

[terminalshort]

Maybe try learning something about oil extraction before making insane claims that it is even possible for an oil company to just roll up and "steal" oil and send it back to the US.

[myvoiceismypass]

Maybe try realizing that everything out of that man's mouth is fucking insane?

[jacquesm]

That doesn't matter. What matters is what Trump thinks he's going to do.

[pegasus]

I'm no fan of Trump, and I believe he's basically gone rogue, but, literally, he never said what you say he said. If I missed something, please provide a reference, but I doubt you'll find anything. You simply misheard. He's been extremely brazen in mentioning such a crass topic as American interest in Venezuelan oil, which normally would be pushed vigorously under the rug, but he didn't go as far as saying that's the reason. The official (and preposterous by itself) reason is still the drugs.

My take concords with what @JumpCrisscross said elsewhere in this thread:

"HN sometimes has trouble understanding coalitions. Some support for oil. Some want to unseat a dictator. Some are concerned about Venezuela being a hive of Chinese, Russian and Iranian activity. Some did it to destabilise Cuba, or lay the groundwork for hitting Iran. Still others are just plain psychopaths and like blowing things up."

I would add that personal pique probably had as big a part in this decision as anything else.

[goatlover]

"We're going to have our very large United States oil companies, the biggest anywhere in the world, go in, spend billions of dollars, fix the badly broken infrastructure, the oil infrastructure, and start making money for the country, and we are ready to stage a second and much larger attack if we need to do so," Trump said.

https://www.npr.org/2026/01/03/g-s1-104346/trump-venezuela-m...

[Sabinus]

Do you think the plan is for American companies to come in and pump out the oil and pay nothing for it? 1800s colony stuff?

[pegasus]

Yes, and? Read my comment and the comment I was replying to. Nowhere did Trump "literally admit" they went in "for the oil". Nor that they plan to "steal the oil". I'm not saying that that's not part of the reason (probably is, but not the only one). Trump though, didn't "literally admit it". This whole adventure is outrageous and misguided enough as it is, without us needing to bend the truth to make it feel even more so.

[jacquesm]

Check the talking points memo distributed at 14:15 for an update.

[terminalshort]

That's the last place I would ever check to find out why a government did something

[JumpCrisscross]

HN sometimes has trouble understanding coalitions.

Some support for oil. Some want to unseat a dictator. Some are concerned about Venezuela being a hive of Chinese, Russian and Iranian activity. Some did it to destabilise Cuba, or lay the groundwork for hitting Iran. Still others are just plain psychopaths and like blowing things up.

[PantaloonFlames]

People, not only patrons of HN, like simple answers.

They look at clouds and see the patterns they want to see.

It turns out things are usually more complicated than that.

[pegasus]

Personal pique probably, sadly, also played a role.

[khazhoux]

Personal pique positively played a primary part.

[erxam]

It definitely did. Not Trump, though.

It's Narco Rubio. He probably started shooting ropes the very moment he knew the operation was successful.

[lenkite]

Yes, and oil will now flow to Florida - for as long as an obedient US puppet lives. The gal who actually won the election is not obedient enough for Trump since she doesn't have "support and respect" of the nation according to Trump.

[yes_really]

Oh, I don't think the US should just topple all dictatorships!

If the US could press a button and have all dictatorships automatically become stable, liberal democracies, I'm pretty sure they would do that and we'd all be happy.

But the US cannot just topple the government of all dictatorships at once. If it tried that, it would just cause immense chaos, and all those countries would unite against the West.

The US has to ally with some dictatorships against other dictatorships, like it did with the USSR against the Nazis and how it does with Saudi Arabia against Iran.

Iran hates us since the Islamic Revolution (when we supported the Shah), and finances multiple terrorist groups such as Hesbollah, Hamas and the Houthis. Saudi Arabia is a dictatorship, but at least it's not a revisionist state (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Revisionist_state) and has a more peaceful objective towards its neighbors.

If the US refused to ally with dictatorships, the only country in the entire Middle East that it could ally with is Israel. It would have to fight all other countries at once.

[morshu9001]

Why doesn't the US take Saudi Arabia's oil then?

[jeltz]

Because they already have it under good enough control. Your question is like asking why the US does not invade Texas and take their oil.

[morshu9001]

They don't pay us anything to sell their oil. We have a relatively small partnership with them, but that's about it. And they're part of OPEC, which is deliberately designed counter to US interests.

[clot27]

because saudi already pays them. Saudi is already in their control. Iran isnt so they are plotting a regime change there too, use your brain.

[esarbe]

As hard as it is to watch a people suffer a dictatorship; that's the Venezuelan's task, not the US's, not Russia's and not China's.

International law clearly states that a sovereign nation has the right to self-rule, without external intervention. The UN Charter doesn't differentiate between democractic and non-democratic nations - it's up to the people of a nation to select their leadership.

We've seen this principle violated before, when the Ukrainian people took the streets for months to topple their leader in 2014. Russia to this day takes this as an excuse to question Ukrainian sovereignty, framing the events as a "US coup" to justify their violent invasion of Ukraine.

The argument you make just plays in their hand. "There was a violent coup - we need to remove the coup government and bring back democracy to Ukraine", they say. Because in your framing leaves open who gets to decide what it means to be democratically legitimized.

What if the US decides that it will not recognize the government of Denmark as democratically elected and moves to liberate the people of Greenland from their despotic dictatorship?

You're argument opens the door for unlimited military intervention.

[wpietri]

I think you have some good points, but you take it too far. The UN charter is the way it is not because it's the optimal approach, but because non-democratic countries had too much power for it to be otherwise.

As an example, the American Revolution had support from France, the Netherlands, and Spain. Britain saw this as shocking interference in an internal matter, as did loyalists in America.

Personally, I think it was a good thing, helping a people determine their own fate. Applying the same measure here, I simultaneously think it's great Maduro is out, but that the manner of it is terrible. As well as being foolishly shortsighted, both for the US and the world more broadly.

[cmurf]

The charter doesn't prohibit aiding people.

The charter limits the powerful nations. Rule #1 is nations cannot start wars. Starting a war is a crime.

The charter requires some consensus by the international community to authorize use of force against another country.

Article 51 acknowledges the right to self-defence. The only country that has a right to violence is the defending nation and those who aid it from aggression.

And this is, once again, American aggression. We aren't doing it because it's right. We're doing it because we can. In violation of international law.

[vladms]

I doubt there is any other "optimal" approach, but do say what you would propose.

There will always be indirect interference anyhow (think social networks, books, press, people talking, tariffs, visas, etc.), so there is some possibility for states to push things in their direction.l

I think imagining there can be some "authority" that could decide when "direct interference" is allowed or not will be a disaster at some point, because even if at first is OK, as a society we don't seem to be at a point where we can have organizations that work well for hundreds of years.

[wpietri]

I'm not proposing anything. I'm pointing out that in a complex world simple rules, however appealing they are cognitively, aren't sufficient.

[joering2]

> but you take it too far.

you do know who the president of the United States currently is RIGHT ?

[wpietri]

I think the last part of my post makes it clear that I do. But if not, let me just make clear that we have to struggle through the Harding administration as best we can, but better days are ahead.

[calf]

Countries are not like IID random variables which is the basis of this sort of center-liberal argument.

[bawolff]

> As an example, the American Revolution had support from France, the Netherlands, and Spain

But to what extent did they do it to "free" america vs to take Britian down a peg because they worried Britian was getting too powerful?

I think most people here are doubtful of Trumps motives or that this coup will actually lead to a free Venezuela.

America worked out really well. There are many many examples in history where imperial powers interfering in a local power struggle worked out very poorly for the average person of the country.

[jacquesm]

> America worked out really well.

That really depends on who you are asking.

[wpietri]

Are these really separable? Even a an individual I generally have multiple motivations for an action. That has to be even more true for whole nations.

And I don't think there's any reason to be doubtful of Trump's motivations. He's a would-be tyrant and has made it clear that this is about world dominance, Venezuela's oil, and enriching American businessmen. He has no interest in a free, democratic Venezuela. If this does work out well for Venezuelans, it'll be more due to Trump's flaws (arrogance, laziness, increasing dementia, and the TACO phenomenon) than any intent on his part.

[nosefurhairdo]

My read of your argument: international law says don't intervene in foreign government, and by intervening we legitimize future violence.

I'm not sure this argument makes sense. Maduro stole an election to force his way to dictatorship, is widely blamed for running the country into mass poverty, and continues to hold onto power through threat of violence. The Venezuelan people don't have any recourse here.

Also, in your example of Ukraine you indicate that Russia frames the uprising as a "US coup", suggesting that the reality of whether there even was external involvement isn't so important.

Even so, if some nation tried to use this strike on Venezuela as further justification for violence wouldn't they be violating the same international law you cite anyway?

Obviously the US has a rough track record of replacing foreign governments (a much stronger argument against this kind of act IMO), but so far this mission has looked pretty ideal (rapid capture of Maduro, minimal casualties, US forces instead of funding some rebel group). There is opportunity for a good ending if we can steward a legitimate election for Venezuela, assist with restoration of key institutions (legal, police, oil), and we avoid any deals regarding oil that are viewed as unfair by the Venezuelans.

[esarbe]

You are deluding yourself. This is not some kind of "humanitarian" intervention, this is about controlling Venezuela and its resources[1]. Venezuela will not become a proper democracy after that, instead it will be an imperial US protectorate.

Whether Maduro stole the election or not is exactly and only the Venezuelans' issue. No one but them as a standing in the matter.

[1] https://www.nytimes.com/live/2026/01/03/world/trump-united-s...

[nosefurhairdo]

I did not mean to suggest that our motives were purely humanitarian. As I understand it there are numerous geopolitical implications with Venezuela, from China's loans-for-oil relationship to the Iran assisted drone manufacturing facilities. And of course we'd like some of that oil, too.

I'm just not convinced that removing Maduro is some horrible violation of international law. As I said in my original comment, I'd be more sympathetic to the argument that the US has a horrible track record with regime change.

Regardless, given the geopolitical significance of Venezuela's relationships with China and Iran it is ignorant to suggest that "[only Venezuelans have] a standing in the matter." And the illegitimacy of Maduro's election is not a topic of serious debate as your phraseology might suggest. He stole the election, he's bad for Venezuelans, and he's good for our geopolitical rivals. It is yet to be revealed whether our intervention will be a net positive.

[mrkstu]

Panama has done fine since a similar intervention.

The US didn't loot Iraq or Kuwait.

Trump is supremely transactional, so he doesn't do anything for free, but the high likelihood is that the US as a whole will spend more than it gets back in revenue, especially government revenue.

[erxam]

Panamá is doing "fine" because they actually own their fucking canal. If the US had its way and reestablished the Canal Zone, the rest of the country would collapse in on itself.

Which is exactly what they want to do with the Venezuelan oil.

[terminalshort]

Their canal? The US first built Panama, and then built the canal.

[yes_really]

Was the North wrong in attacking the South in the American Civil War over slavery? By your logic, only the slaves have standing in the matter.

[ModernMech]

The North did not attack the South; it was the Confederates who initially succeeded from the Union and fired the first shot of the Civil War at Fort Sumter in 1861.

[yes_really]

The North was obviously threatening to engage in war against the South over the slavery/secession issues. Whoever fired the first shot is immaterial.

[throwaway173738]

You’re assuming that’s the only thing at issue here. When the US starts these wars for resources we always make statements about “spreading democracy” so we can hide behind that bailey. But Trump actually explained what it was really about in his speech: restoring access to cheap Venezuelan oil. Don’t give him the benefit of the doubt here. He’s doing the sane thing George W Bush did.

[stale2002]

> The argument you make just plays in their hand

Who cares? What are they going to do about it?

> Because in your framing leaves open who gets to decide what it means to be democratically legitimized.

That was already the case. Our enemies don't care about the concept of hypocrisy. They aren't waiting for some moral high ground. They are going to do what they want to do regardless.

> You're argument opens the door for unlimited military intervention.

No it doesn't. If it is bad to invade somewhere, we can simply not do that. And we can judge this based on the situation and the consequences.

[esarbe]

> Who cares? What are they going to do about it?

Yeah, sorry. You're an imperialist. There's not point reasoning with imperialists. Just as there's not point reasoning with bullies.

[stale2002]

> There's no point reasoning with imperialists

I'm not sure why you think that matters either.

Your tut tutting isn't going to get Maduro back in power. That's what the guns and helicopters were for.

Additionally, if you want to actually figure out what was right or wrong, Id recommend that you go talk to some actual Venezuelans about this. The opinions are quite universal.

[WackyFighter]

> International law clearly states that a sovereign nation has the right to self-rule, without external intervention. The UN Charter doesn't differentiate between democractic and non-democratic nations - it's up to the people of a nation to select their leadership.

I really wish people would accept that political realism is how the US really operates, rather than buying into the fantasy that there is some rules based order and quoting the UN Charter.

> The argument you make just plays in their hand.

Any argument made on this site by anyone here will have absolute no effect on the outcome in anyway. That has been the case for all of human history and will never change.

[jdkee]

International law is not real.

[mindcrash]

The UN Charter isn't real?

"Article 1 (2) establishes that one of the main purposes of the United Nations, and thus the Security Council, is to develop friendly international relations based on respect for the “principle of equal rights and self-determination of peoples”. The case studies in this section cover instances where the Security Council has discussed situations with a bearing on the principle of self-determination and the right of peoples to decide their own government, which may relate to the questions of independence, autonomy, referenda, elections, and the legitimacy of governments."

https://main.un.org/securitycouncil/en/content/purposes-and-...

[orochimaaru]

It isn't. There isn't a force standing behind to enforce the charter.

With politics and most importantly international politics, there is no law and no right & wrong. It's basically actions and consequences and whether the advantage you gain from your actions is worth the consequences.

People and groups of people (nations) will press their advantage. We press our advantage every day. Most people driving frequently exceed the speed limit - why? Because you can get away with it. If one could skip paying taxes and get away with it we would have done it. The reason the tax skipping doesn't happen often is because the consequences of doing it are high compared to the advantage.

The US just pressed its advantage today because it could get away with it and with minimal cost.

[stale2002]

> The UN Charter isn't real?

Correct. The UN charter is a piece of paper.

Pieces of paper don't do anything. They are not magic spells that enforce anything, and they only matter in so far as they are enforced by other actors with real power.

If you want to talk about what other countries with a military or trade power might do, go ahead. But the piece of paper is rarely relevant at the international stage.

[greenavocado]

The only thing that matters is what the guys with the guns want to take from you

[goatlover]

That was certainly the case on The Walking Dead with the various surviving communities. But we should hope the actual world would operate a little more lawfully than a post-apocalyptic free for all.

[skissane]

International law is real. It has discernible content, people who professionally study it, and it does influence (however incompletely) the behaviour of the world’s governments

This idea that law can’t exist if it doesn’t have a clearly identified enforcer is very modern-a lot of traditional/customary law (e.g. the Pashtunwali in Afghanistan or the Kanun in Albania) never had a clear enforcer but that doesn’t mean it didn’t exist, people sometimes paid attention to it, it influenced how people behaved even if they sometimes got away with ignoring it

[xdennis]

Law is defined as "a set of rules that are created and are enforceable by social or governmental institutions to regulate behavior".

International law is defined as "the set of rules, norms, legal customs and standards that states and other actors feel an obligation to, and generally do, obey in their mutual relations".

When people say that international law is not real, what they mean is that "international law" is to "law" as a "guinea pig" is to a "pig".

The primary differentiation is enforcement.

People bastardize the term law, because they like to throw the word "illegal" around and imply "evilness" without being arbitrary. But guess what: Trump can be evil, without his actions being "illegal".

Without international law, actions would be the same (Serbia gets punished, Rwanda gets away), but you would have to argue for morality individually. Instead, people can point to some tome some unelected people wrote and say "this book says you're evil and you can't argue with it". The book says it's illegal and that's that.

[jdkee]

". . . people sometimes paid attention to it . . ."

Exactly.

[FergusArgyll]

Failure to understand this is a primary cause of a lot of unneeded consternation

[esarbe]

Then it's just "might makes right" and you pick a favorite imperialist to cheer on to invade their next peaceful neighbor.

Sorry, but I don't buy into that imperialism shit.

[terminalshort]

Always has been

[Fricken]

That imperialism shit doesn't care what you think because it's bigger and meaner than you are and there ain't a damn thing you can do about it.

[lenkite]

Once normal people get desperate and mean enough, imperialism tends to loose in a big way. History has proven it at great cost.

[RankingMember]

Yep, the "great cost" is something that seems to get lost in the shuffle sometimes in conversations about this. No leadership realizes the error of their ways before a lot of suffering.

[tpmoney]

Not to justify what happened here, but your argument would mean that the US would likely have remained a British colony given that French intervention on behalf of the colonies was a contributing factor to the success of the revolutionary war. It also would heavily imply that once the allied forces had beaten the Nazi's back behind German borders, that they should have stopped there. An extreme non-interventionist policy might be the best default policy, but it is implicitly an endorsement of might makes right as well. There are almost certainly times when a country should feel justified in intervening in another country's "regime change", but those times should be very carefully considered and (IMO) never ever viewed as a first or easy step, only a last (or nearly last) resort.

[esarbe]

Your argument is perfectly well suited to justify the imperialist Russian aggression against Ukraine.

My point is that there's no entity with the authority to declare a government illegal - besides the UN security council. Next thing you know China invades Taiwan and it will be hard to argue with "sovereignty of nations". Nobody - not even the US - cares about it anymore, right? We just declare a government as illegitimate and presto - no need to justify it anymore. Here we go for some more foreign wars.

This is not about "liberating Venezuela" from a dictatorship. It's just about placing a new dictator at the head of Venezuela, equally illegitimate and equally authoritarian. Venezuela has become an US protectorate for the foreseeable future. At least until the oil runs dry [1].

[1] https://www.nytimes.com/live/2026/01/03/world/trump-united-s...

[tpmoney]

> Your argument is perfectly well suited to justify the imperialist Russian aggression against Ukraine.

Once you accept that there may be cases where you need to interfere with another country’s internal affairs, you can make up all sort of justifications to interfere (or not) in any given case. So yes, Russia would argue that the specific circumstance justify their actions. I would argue they don’t, but clearly Russia doesn’t care about me (and frankly wouldn’t care even if my opinion was that there is never a justification for interfering).

> My point is that there's no entity with the authority to declare a government illegal - besides the UN security council.

Now that’s an interesting claim. Why does the security council have this authority? From where do they derive that authority? Just 15 nations can declare your government “illegal”? Unless of course the government you want declared illegal happens to be one of those 15 I guess. So some nations internal affairs are more sacrosanct than others? And what happens when the UN declares your government “illegal”. Can anyone just waltz their military in and overthrow your government despite the fact that no one is supposed to have the right to interfere with the internal affairs of another country?

> This is not about "liberating Venezuela" from a dictatorship.

You appear confused because I never argued that it was. I merely objected to the idea that there was never a justification to interfere with the internal affairs of another country.

[ModernMech]

> imply that once the allied forces had beaten the Nazi's back behind German borders, that they should have stopped there.

How does “we should not interfere in other countrys’ internal affairs” imply “we should not destroy the aggressor in a war they started”?

[tpmoney]

The principles of self defense say that once you are no longer being attacked, any further aggression on your part is no longer defense. For example, you can use lethal force to protect yourself from a person attempting to cause you grievous harm, but once they stop attacking you and start retreating, if you chase after them and beat them or kill them, you’re no longer acting in self defense and are now committing a crime. By that same token, once the axis forces had been pushed back behind their own borders, invading them becomes an act of aggression rather than defense. Once they’re behind their own borders, fascist war mongering governments are an “internal affair” for the affected peoples to deal with.

Now you might argue that a declared war is no longer a situation where “non-interference” applies, but war can be declared unilaterally. So you might say that only the initial defenders have a right to engage in regime changes, but does that mean that the Ukrainian people have a right to overthrow the Russian government in response to the current war? Do the Palestinians have a right to overthrow the Israeli government? Do the Irish have a right to overthrow the British monarchy for their previous aggressions? Do the British have a right to overthrow the US government for the American Revolution?

Which ultimately is just a long way of getting back to my point that “non-interference” might be (and IMO is) a good default policy, it’s also an unrealistic one for all situations. At some point something about the current political landscape requires a nation to interfere in the “internal affairs” of another country. But that is a dangerous game that should never be the default.

[morshu9001]

Ukraine was a US coup too, decades of involvement. Otherwise, either Russia wouldn't have invaded, or US wouldn't have been afraid to directly fight Russia over it. The sad reality is that countries in this situations will get captured or proxied by someone or another if they don't play things exactly right.

[skoinks]

Yes, tell this to the protesters shot by Berkut in 2014... I have to ask - where do you read this bullcrap?

[morshu9001]

Shot by Russia-backed forces, yes. Both Russia and US were heavily involved by 2014. Talks with NATO go back to the 90s.

[skoinks]

Yes, so let's imagine for a second there was no US involvement (there was minimal, in an advisory and intelligence role); Would Yanukovich still be in power? Would 2014 would've gone any different? Do you know what events happened preceding the shootings? The police violently beating the protesters? Obviously not on all counts. So to say that the Maidan was a result of US involvement is a russian talking point on a good day and a blatant, filthy lie on any other.

[morshu9001]

If you imagine that there was no US involvement and Ukraine's leadership did not in fact repeatedly state its intentions to fully join NATO in the 2000s, sure. I won't claim that the US materially supported the Maidan uprising, because there's no evidence.

Now going with that, it means Russia invaded Ukraine in an act of pure aggression. Instead of the halfway support Biden gave, we should be directly fighting Russia over this. Putin won't start WW3 over us stopping a totally unjustified expansion, unless he's already intent on WW3 anyway.

[derbOac]

There are many alternatives to a unilateral unconstitutional action by a convicted felon.

Anything multilateral for starters, and involving multilateral nonviolent interventions first.

[malvim]

You… What?

How can you say that like it’s a real argument? You’re REALLY, in 2026, defending that the US is “bringing democracy” to other countries by force?

I… How?

[jwilber]

The Venezuelan people?

[lm28469]

If it was about democracy the US would be kidnapping presidents left and right every year all around the world...

[malvim]

… including in the US

[layer8]

You have to think of the long-term consequences of blatantly abandoning the rule of (international) law for might makes right. The end doesn't justify the means.

Not to mention that the "end" here is first and foremost enriching the administrative "elite" and extending their power. If they cared about democracy, they'd stand firmly behind Ukraine instead of humoring Russia.