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by d_theorist 166 days ago
They haven’t removed the government. They removed Maduro. Very different.
6 comments

While it's true that so far they only removed Maduro, removing a sitting president and his wife is a show of power, it's a "we do whatever we want". What is stopping the US to remove the next person, and continue doing so until as they find someone that they like? Or to organize an up-rising or a coup? The writing is on the wall.
This already likely was a coup. They knew exactly where Maduro was and were able to get in and out, with no air defense issues, no alarm issues, and all presumably with just a small commando group. This isn't like grabbing Osama who was relatively alone on a compound - this is the current President of a country, who was already probably quite paranoid, and who now was under active threat and certainly behaving accordingly. Doing all that as an outsider is basically impossible, so they must have had substantial amounts of insider help, which is essentially the definition of a coup.

And the media is already reporting that 'somehow' all of his inner circle seem to have survived.

They blew up the air defences and reportedly had help from a CIA informant, but there's nothing to indicate that it was a coup.
True but you don't need advanced defense to take out slow moving helicopters, the fact that nobody used manpads is extremely suspect. Also in syria the russians did token airstrikes while jolani's forces blitzed through the countryside.
It was done at night with stealth helicopters, and over 150 planes in the air. Not sure it's necessarily easy to take out US military helicopters in that environment. They move pretty fast.
Sure, but bulky chinnok helicopters flying low to the ground and barely getting shot at? Smelling an inside job honestly, especially with rumors of trump wanting have Venezuela's current VP ascend to the presidency instead of the other investor lady.
That was only to save face. It was part of a negotiated exit.
2-3 years max in a federal country club prison, minimum security. Then it's off to Switzerland or Dubai with his ill gotten gains. It is rather sad to see people having a personal stake in this. It's a big club, and you ain't in it.
To be fair, an illegitimate president, who was being protected with forces from a foreign (to them) govt. A LOT of people in and from Venezuela wanted Maduro out. The dancing in the streets are a pretty big indicator of this. And it's quite probable there were insiders involved that helped this operation happen.
Venezuela was a functioning democracy until a short number of years ago, when Maduro stole the election through clear and blatant fraud.

Not every country is Iraq or Afghanistan. At least here it's fairly clear that removing Maduro reflects the popular will of Venezuelans.

One could easily ask the same question about the US. With congress having abdicated it raises the legitimate question of exactly what the US is now.
Among my European friends, no one considers the USA to be a legitimate democracy any more. The USA has for us devolved into a bandit state.
They should study political philosophy a bit more so they don’t say foolish things.

America is very clearly a legitimate democracy, even if who was voted in office and the actions of that democratically elected government don’t align with your expectations or world view.

I didn’t vote for the guy. But I did vote. And as a poll worker I can tell you first hand that we ran a free and fair election as we have for any year I can think of. Legitimate Democracy. Period.

That's a legitimately run _election_, which is necessary for but not the same as a legitimate democracy. For a democracy to be legitimate you need an impartial judiciary, an enforced constitution, fundamental civil liberties, and an accountable government.
Thank you for serving as a poll worker. (Seriously: thank you)

We have a legitimate democracy in terms of vote-counting, and you personally contribute to that.

It looks a lot less legitimate to me when I think about factors like votes having vastly varying weights because of gerrymandering and the Electoral College.

It gets even less legitimate when I think about how severely restricted our choice of candidates are, and how they are more or less chosen by party leaders and the oligarchy via billions of dollars of lobbying etc.

Well, in the same vein I could tell you to re-take your primary school civics classes and write me an essay on the key components of a modern democracy.

The mechanism by which we choose leaders isn’t even in the top three most important prerequisites for a functioning democracy. If you didn’t pay attention in history and civics classes this may come as a surprise.

As corporate lobbying succeeds with its lobotomization/capture of public institutions, it fundamentally raises the bar for what constitutes legitimate democracy - for example ranked choice voting rather than raced-to-the-bottom plurality. Or to the point you're responding to - as Congress continues to sit by and let this dictator run amok, how much can we say that this is really the democratic system working as laid out, rather than a mere husk of the old democratic structure going through the motions while something else is actually running the show?

This should be doubly apparent in this thread, where this specific invasion would likely still be happening even if the fascists had lost in 2024 - this has military industrial complex's manufacturing consent and nation building all over it, regardless of it benefiting Trump to distract from the childrape files and whatever other corruption/stealing he can wedge in.

I certainly see the vitriol against the US on r/europe which seems like it has more news about the United States than Europe.

Can’t help but think it’s orchestrated by Russian bots.

You do realize the current government won the elections and the president won the popular vote right

> You do realize the current government won the elections and the president won the popular vote right

Technically he won a plurality of the popular vote, but he didn't win the popular vote. This is typically not a distinction that matters, but in this case it's what happened. The majority of people voted for someone else, but he got votes from more people than any other candidate did.

Of course, what really matters is the electoral college, but the popular vote is often seen as lending even more legitimacy to a victory.

All while Europe dabbles in outlawing and criminalizing opposition parties they’re deeming “far right”. Sure anyone who opposes unlimited unrestricted immigration is now “far right”. Regardless of opinion, democracy is about the people determining that conversation, not politburos.

Alternatively the UK violating the millennia old Magna Carta by halting jury trials for criminal offenses with less than 2 years of jail time.

If you're still treating Reddit, especially large subreddits, as a serious source of information rather than an extremely manipulated outlet of 90% propaganda bots, that is quite foolish.

Maybe I should make a website where example.com/e/Europe shows whatever I want people to think Europe thinks, and people will treat it as an authority for some reason? That's basically what you're doing with Reddit.

Yes, clearly the russian bots are running a campaign against Trump, the most explicitly pro-Russia president we've had in decades. Donald "Ukraine started the war" Trump.
Elected heads of state have moved towards totalitarian rule before.

Besides, elections isn’t what defines a functioning democracy.

Why do so many people fail to pay attention in history and civics class? And why do people get so upset when their ignorance is pointed out to them.

«He was elected» is not a justification. If it were then the rest of the world would take a dim view of Americans. Be glad that hasn’t become worse.

What if it isn't? What if the sentiments expressed represent what Europeans think of the US?
While there may be some truth to that (bots)... there are definitely a lot of quasi communists that are participating in these groups. They are active, involved and have an outsized influence in terms of being a squeaky wheel.

You just have to look at the protests in NYC over Venezuela to see it... they aren't actually for what the people of Venezuela seem to want (they're celebrating), the protestors are clearly pushing for and protecting at what represents communist values, even if Maduro isn't really much of a Communist.

Never forget that the largest share of the 2024 US voting-eligible population went to "did not vote".

Harris received 97% of Trump's vote count.

There is not that strong a popular mandate for Trump, which shows in his approval ratings.

> I certainly see the vitriol against the US on r/europe which seems like it has more news about the United States than Europe.

Nonsense.

> Can’t help but think it’s orchestrated by Russian bots.

Rational people can.

> the president won the popular vote

False.

trump was ineligible due to his attempted insurrection on Jan 6th, end of story
Maybe the president of the USA can do something about the president of the USA being authoritarian
The problem is they elect a different president and their opinion of authoritarian changes.
Hi, here in America we also know this is true. :) Just riding it out til the regime of crazy falls over. When it happens, there will be much rejoicing.
That's the story many Europeans are hearing from their hand rectangles.
> Among my European friends, no one considers the USA to be a legitimate democracy

Sure is a bold statement considering Spain was a dictatorship as recently as 1975.

Maybe they know what they're talking about then?
Whataboutism says a great deal about a person and the evaluation of their thought processes and the validity of their statements.
Same friends who believe there is genocide in Gaza?
This one is probably also -- if not completely invented by -- at least seriously boosted by russotrolls. And weaponized for several pro-Russia talking points, such as campaigning against Kamala Harris ("she is not against Israel so don't vote for her") and driving global gaze out of Ukraine.
> With congress having abdicated

Historically in the American Republic, this has been true more often than not. There's a reason something taking "an act of Congress" is not a new expression for difficulty.

"Act of Congress" has always implied "something that is hard", but it has also implied "something that is fairly definitive". Today, congress can be largely ignored by the executive and congress seems to support it vocally. Is this also something that has been true more often than not in the American Republic?
> Today, congress can be largely ignored by the executive and congress seems to support it vocally.

I seem to remember the 116th and 118th Congresses pushing back against executive power, which were the last times the US had divided government. https://history.house.gov/Institution/Presidents-Coinciding/...

And I wouldn't exactly say that Congress is wholly supporting unrestricted presidential power currently either. E.g. Senator Thune continually shooting down Trump's more oddball pleas.

There are very vocal supporters of the president in both the House and Senate GOP caucuses, but they're not the majority.

I think the strongest version of your argument would be something like 'In recent US Congressional history, both parties when in power have used congressional power to tactically check opposition party presidents, but neither have sought to permanently expand and defend the bounds of congressional power.'

There are degrees. I don’t think congress has been this weak before in our lifetime. And most people seeming not to care scares me.

I have been looking at productivity numbers for congress over the past decades. And I don’t get why people aren’t furious over the current congress not doing their job.

That is rubbish. I loathe Trump more than most, but there's no serious claim that he wasn't freely elected in 2024. There appears to be a lot of buyer's remorse and we'll see what happens in the mid terms. But (sadly) Americans asked for this and they got it.
I would not say that we asked for it.

The opposition refused to address internal issues with the incumbent until they were painfully evident, then switched in a much weaker candidate in the final months who had never won a primary.

Had a stronger candidate been offered from the beginning, Trump well could have lost.

Really doesn't matter. America had two choices and made the one it did. It's clear what the country is, and is not.
> That is rubbish. I loathe Trump more than most, but there's no serious claim that he wasn't freely elected in 2024.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Republican_Party_efforts_to_di...

In a way, America didn’t ask for what it got. America voted for a guy who claimed to have never heard of Project 2025. It got Project 2025.

Also, Trump ran on a populist message. Yet if you look at what he has done materially since he got into office, it seems his true allegiance is with the billionaire elite.

History is filled with countries that wanted their leader gone, but rejected foreign influence.

I think most Venezuelans want freedom, prosperity, peace, and sovereignty.

I’m not sure in what order.

Time will tell if this move brought them any closer to those goals.
It's still military interference in a soverign nation to effect regime change.
Nevertheless, if you genuinely believe in the principles of democracy, this is a win.

It would have been better if Maduro had respected the choice of Venezuelan voters. But that didn't happen, so here we are.

I don’t really care to get involved of the affairs of foreign governments. This isn’t about “narcoterrorism” or democracy. You’re a fool if you think that.
I don't really care what it's "about". I care that the Venezuelan people get their democracy back. Even if Trump is doing this because the voices in his head told him to do it, ending Maduro's rule is a step in the right direction.
> Nevertheless, if you genuinely believe in the principles of democracy, this is a win.

That is at best premature. Maybe wait for the outcome?

Yes, foreign intervention worked wonderfully in Iran, Iraq, Afghanistan and other parts of the world. We should also thank Russia for trying hard to extend its thriving democracy to Ukraine.
that's always the convenient excuse of the foreign attackers -- that they are "liberating the people"

we've seen this over and over again in foreign policy of large powerful countries

lets not pretend that this is about establishing democracy; it's about access to Venezuelan oil

it's the US showing it can do whatever it wants in its "backyard", just as it always has

No wonder Trump likes Putin

That just shows that popular will is not a justification for something. If the popular will was self destructive would a powerful entity be justified in giving them what they desire?
I agree. “Wisdom of the crowd” is the least useful aspect of democracy. “Broad support” and “bloodless regime change” are probably the most useful.
Eh, Saddam Hussein wasn't terribly popular. History is full of awful people being toppled and situations further degrading. Sometimes horrifically.
Iraq was never a democracy. It bounced from monarchy to military rule to one party rule to Hussein's personal dictatorship.

Venezuela had a... let's call it "respectable" democracy since the late 50s. Chavez did it no favors but it didn't completely collapse until Maduro.

If Venezuela recovers and improves, are you willing to fundamentally change your opinion about US interventions?

> If Venezuela recovers and improves, are you willing to fundamentally change your opinion about US interventions?

Uhh, no?

My opinion is that US interventions are incredibly risky. There have been numerous successes. There have also been numerous failures. Both have required immense resources and focus from us.

Some interventions are worth the risk, and others are not. I have not seen any compelling rationale for the risk-reward of this particular intervention, and have very low hopes for the follow through, which makes the risk-reward calculus even worse.

Agree.

If I wear a blindfold, cross a highway and am not hit by a car, am I willing to concede that crossing the highway blindfolded is safe?

You don't think Venezuela having the largest oils reserves on the planet and it being a strong ally to Russia, Iran and China make the possible reward fairly significant from a US standpoint?
Since the purpose of the interventions is to get more access for US oil companies, they are always successes
> Iraq was never a democracy. It bounced from monarchy to military rule to one party rule to Hussein's personal dictatorship.

In reference to this, have you seen the footage of Saddam Hussein taking power? It’s chilling.

Ethics debates are not served by utilitarian arguments.
> Ethics debates are not served by utilitarian arguments.

There isn't just a single universally agreed upon moral framework that serves as the basis for ethics.

Depending on whether you adopt a Rawlsian, Utilitarian, Libertarian, or Communitarian moral framework, your actions would look different depending on the circumstances.

Specially, the Utilitarian moral framework optimizes for the greatest good for the greatest number. Willing to sacrifice the few of the many. It might not be your or my moral framework, but I don't know that we can rule it out as a valid way to approach ethics.

Ah so US will allow Venezuela to profit from their own oil? This time surely
I can't wait for the Total Energies or Shell Oil announcement.
Yes it will. Iraqi government budget is ~88% funded by oil revenues.
The issue with regime change is whether there's enough political cohesion in a country's population after a despot / autocrat is removed.

"The opposition" is rarely a large and representative enough group to effect national power transition. (Btw, thanks for flagging that incorrectly as affect, Apple)

Especially in multi-ethnic states, most cohesive national identities are forged through extremely popular singular leaders.

Unfortunately, those are exactly the same leaders external regime-change initiators are wary of (too independent).

This year's winner of the nobel prize is highly organized and ran a parallel election campaign, which was obviously dismissed by the Maduro regime. There is a slim possibility of a peaceful transition given the democratic efforts underway in Venezuela for many years at this point.
POTUS just said she's not involved, won't be involved, doesn't have the support necessary to lead. Who does? Unclear. His plan appears to be: "oil companies come in, sell the oil" and I'm seriously not exaggerating.
> Especially in multi-ethnic states, most cohesive national identities are forged through extremely popular singular leaders.

And before you know it you have a genocide on your hands.

Sometimes, but it can go the other way too.

Napoleon Bonaparte, Toussaint Louverture, Simon Bolivar, Giuseppe Mazzini, Otto von Bismarck, Mustafa Atatürk, Gamal Nasser

The popular will is the woman the majority voted for. Trump already said she will not be allowed to run the country, that the US will and that we will help them develop, read steal, their oil.
The majority voted for Edmundo González, and María Corina Machado has called for him to be recognized as the leader of the nation.

It's complicated because Maduro banned her from running in the last election (and still lost anyway). In a just world maybe she deserves the position. But if we want to restore democracy in Venezuela, González would be a natural place to start (along with new elections).

And it appears they did so with assistance from within the government, at least with assistance from the military. That's why the operation went so smoothly. It seems like it was unusually easy, precisely because it was.
Any details/sources on this? I thought it was strange that the airspace seemed almost entirely uncontested. Scrambling fighters take a while of course (particularly if unmaintained and you're corrupt), but I had at least expected some ground-based air defences to be active. Maybe they were being blown up in the first few videos that surfaced? Unless they were disabled by other means, that's another catastrophic display of the Russian systems.
Caracas was definitely hit in preparation for the operation, and I'd assume air defenses and assets within scramble range were the primary targets.

Example footage that seems to track with BBC confirmed Caracas strike locations: https://x.com/sentdefender/status/2007340229536239646

The US had previously positioned a lot of USAF and Army air assets in Puerto Rico and on offshore platforms: https://www.twz.com/news-features/cv-22b-osprey-mc-130j-comm...

Those appear to have been used: https://x.com/sentdefender/status/2007339573156950095

In addition, USAF/USN have been flying ELINT platforms (e.g. RC-135s) off the coast for months now.

So even without the cooperation of any of the Venezuelan military, it's possible the mission was:

   1. Precision long-range strikes on air defense radars around Caracas (and possibly assets)
   2. Closer SEAD with F-35s to clear a path
   3. SOAR Delta Force infiltration with tactical air suppression
   4. CAP from F-35s to intercept any scrambled fighters
   5. Exfiltration along same route
If the intelligence was good (location of air defenses and Maduro), it's entirely possible the above just went off cleanly.

See: Desert Storm air campaign. Having capable anti-air assets doesn't matter when your enemy has access to more timely intelligence and the means to do something with it.

"catastrophic display of the Russian systems." - that, or the Russians actually helped the Americans...
I think that might be a step too far, rather I'd guess the US just knows the Russian systems very well. The success of the latest campaign against Iran shows that too, and if anything they learnt even more from that.

Either way, although Trump might every now and then be a bit too friendly with Putin, but a) cooperation at this scale and b) the bad looks and damage to Russian investments I think makes it seem unlikely. Putin doesn't stick his neck out for others unless it serves him. I'm not that well read on the Russian involvement in the area though...

Thats what I'm most curious about right now, did they completely suppress Venezuela's air defenses or were they turned off?
It would not surprise me if it was a mix of both. (Portions of the military stood down, and the more loyal aspects were suppressed.)
Always soften the target before anything happens, no need to suppress when nothing is active.
Update from Reuters: ‘"We're going to run the country until such time as we can do a safe, proper and judicious transition," Trump told reporters. […] "We can't take a chance at somebody else takes over Venezuela that doesn't have the good of the Venezuelan people in mind. We've had decades of that. We're not going to let that happen."’
I'd like to stress that Trump not only said this during the conference from his luxury resort, but repeated and belabored the point several times that the United States would be taking over Venezuela.

(edit - whoops)

Could you please re-edit this comment? I think you forgot a word towards the end.
Whoops, my bad, thank you! Fixed
Entirely unexpected. /s
"Trump says US will ‘run’ Venezuela until ‘judicious transition’ following capture of Maduro"

https://www.cnn.com/world/live-news/venezuela-explosions-car...

That might be a while then, it will take some time to get that oil out.
He's trying to hide the impact his failed economic policies are having. He can't let the 16 Nobel Prize winning economists who warned him that he'd crash the economy "win."

https://assets.bwbx.io/documents/users/iqjWHBFdfxIU/rh1YcFoC...

Equating a person with the government or the nation is a common trait among autocrats. L'État, c'est moi.
Not quite...

Medieval kings were considered the embodiment of the government, but that didn't make them autocratic. Indeed, they were not only bound by a thicket of obligations and customs, but authority itself is only legitimate when it is just, a view that is traditional; it is modern legal positivism that roots authority in fiat, making it inherently tyrannical.

> Indeed, they were not only bound by a thicket of obligations and customs, but authority itself is only legitimate when it is just, a view that is traditional;

Ultimately they were bound not by tradition, but by the reality that they may lose their heads, often at the hands of a competing relative, but also at the hands of starving subjects.

Not yet. Once the anger metastasizes into a new wholly anti-american government, new targets will emerge.

Trump is far from universally loved, but just imagine what the US would become if an outside nation swooped in and captured him. 100% of the american people would be screaming for blood.

> 100% of the american people would be screaming for blood.

Absolutely not. I'd be out celebrating.

I'd be concerned about exactly what price would be asked. No one country spends their cash and soldiers to "liberate" for free. I've turned down free gifts before because I knew they came with strings attached.
People say that, but the sight of say Russian/Mexican/Chinese/Canadian troops parachuting onto the whitehouse lawn to abduct a sitting president, no doubt killing many in the process, would be such an afront that domestic politics wouldnt matter.
I assumed they would be parachuting in on Mar-A-Lago or some golf course somewhere.
C-canadian??
They can burn the whitehouse down. Again.
I think you vastly overestimate the value that people place on Trump. The GOP would swear in President Vance and count their blessings.
... and then President Vance maintaining the status quo would bring you back to reality.
One fewer enemy of the US in a position of power is worth celebrating even if it's not all of them.
There will always be enemies and corrupt people. We need to establish a system of government and culture that doesn't so easily give over the reigns of the nation to these bad actors. If we don't actively do this we will long for the good old days when the corrupt leaders just wanted to steal money for themselves and hurt trans people.
for what is Maduro an enemy of the US. He wasn't willing to sign over the oil reserves to US oil companies. wanting to keep what is theirs away from rapacious foreign invaders would make most of the planet an enemy of the US.
I doubt Vance is capable of getting the support from Congress and the maga voters that Trump has. Once Trump is gone, the Republican party is going to have a hard time putting itself back together.
No, we very much support Vance.

Meanwhile, the individual upthread suggesting they’d support a foreign power invading the US and capturing Trump is the ridiculous, childish, and deeply unserious brand of self-loathing that we are voraciously (and necessarily, if our country is to survive) opposed to.

What is childish about being glad an enemy of the United States was removed from a position of power?
You, personally, might, but I think it's going to be a clusterfuck. You can't stick a different person in a cult of personality and expect it to act the same.
> 100% of the american people would be screaming for blood.

Honestly, at this point, I wouldn't be one of them.

I would not be screaming for blood. It is the world order he wants, and perhaps the only possible lesson in why we shouldn’t give him that world order.
Most polls put it at 30%. (And 30% of those that could vote, didn't—so here we are.)
Capture might not be the aim. The coming decades will see anonymous effective asymmetric warfare with USA infrastructure and the USA political establishment as prime targets. That's the big concern.
Huh... they better build some readily-available hyper-powerful infrastructure, pronto, or that next election could hand power to folks that don't have the best interest of the country in mind:

https://thedreydossier.substack.com/p/trump-isnt-building-a-...

A new cold war effectively, but with the goal of cementing local power.
That is a very real risk. Action -> reaction.
Trump is Russia's guy. There is no way I'd be screaming for revenge over a horrifying complicated nightmare becoming even more toxic, even more complicated, and even more nightmarish. If anyone comes and gets Trump it ain't Russia: he is already theirs, and acting in such a way as to further all their aims and all their narratives.
Maybe, but from observing US politics from afar for a decade, 50% would be screaming for Trumps blood to lock in the win.