[aglavine]

1. Most people from Venezuela are happy Maduro is out. A striking difference with people from Ukraine about the invasion. This is the most important thing about this and most people here in comments ignore it.

2. Maduro wasn't even the president. He was someone who took the country illegally with cartel people.

3. Why? Maduro was smuggling drugs in USA. Huge operations. And I guess there must be geopolitical reasons. You want China and Russia be there? And people from Venezuela were the biggest migration wave in the World last decades. You want millions of refugees?

[sweezyjeezy]

I think one of the best arguments against US interventionalism when it comes to tyrants is just how 'variable' (let's say) the outcomes have been over the years. For every Panama, there's two or three Guatamalas, Irans or most recently Iraq. Generally the hard part is not the removal of the head of state, which for the US is usually pretty quick. It's what beurocratic structures remain functional and whether the power vacuum created brings something better and more robust, or just decades of violence.

[wrsh07]

I think Sarah Paine on dwarkesh has noted that it tends to go well when the countries already have fairly robust institutions and tends to go badly when they don't

As I'm not a historian, I can only note that it hasn't gone well recently even when multiple successive presidents want it to

[nonethewiser]

In Iraq/Afghanistan, the US dismantled the institutions and tried to build new ones.

In Venezuela, it appears they are simply moving the gun to the head of Maduro's replacement.

[tdeck]

> Most people from Venezuela are happy Maduro is out.

Based on what? There's a poll already about the US bombing Venezuela and kidnapping Maduro? There's a big difference between removing a leader through a legitimate domestic process and this.

[semiquaver]

What legitimate domestic process are you envisioning? He lost an election and stayed in power anyway. Any domestic process to remove him would look like a coup.

[whateveracct]

> He lost an election and stayed in power anyway

Hey, we had a guy who tried to do that too! Thank goodness it didn't work out.

[tommica]

Not everything is about your country

[jdiff]

No, but the referenced individual is responsible for this geopolitical mess we're discussing, so it's certainly relevant.

[IncreasePosts]

Maduro is responsible for the mess by stealing an election and installing himself as dictator

[IncreasePosts]

We did. And if he was successful, and then started threatening Canada, I think I'd be totally fine with Canada performing a special operation and taking him to stand trial.

[tdeck]

There have been uprisings that weren't coups in many countries in the world.

[monerozcash]

And if that doesn't work? You could, for example, envision a situation where 10% of the people are well treated and armed by the government. It'd be very hard for an unarmed ill-treated 90% to conduct any kind of uprising if the government was sufficiently well organized and brutal.

[aglavine]

At some point is what you believe, but based on lost elections and literally millions of exiled people.

[lurk2]

The word “exiled” implies these people were forced out by the Maduro regime, which is not the case; virtually all of them left the country due to deteriorating economic conditions.

[googlryas]

Venezuelans for the past 5+ years have been the most or almost the most numerous asylum seekers in the US. And "poor economic conditions" or general poverty is not a valid reason to claim asylum

[lurk2]

> Venezuelans for the past 5+ years have been the most or almost the most numerous asylum seekers in the US.

That by itself does not demonstrate that the majority have been exiled, even if we want to expand the definition of "exile" to be inclusive of those who were not actually forced to leave, but felt it was necessary to leave due to political persecution.

The majority of Venezuelans will never have a legal option to reside in the United States. This incentivizes Venezuelans to make asylum claims in order to gain entry. Similar abuses of the asylum process are seen at far smaller scales in Canada and the European Union.

What sort of persecution are these people claiming to have experienced, and more specifically, what rights are they alleging to have been deprived of by the Maduro regime?

[ralfd]

Venezuelan social media. It is likely dominated though by opposition who left the country.

[mvdtnz]

Please, educate yourself on Maduro and the people of Venezuela. It would be hard to find a less popular leader. A quarter of Venezuelans have fled the country under his regime. 82% of Venezuelans are living in poverty and he has presided over hyperinflation. Exit polls showed him losing the last election in a landslide and he stole the country anyway.

[tdeck]

Please educate yourself on the history of US "interventions" in south and central America.

[mlindner]

> Based on what?

Well the videos of ~200,000 Venezuelan people partying in the capitol of Argentina is a start. As well as many other pictures and videos of gatherings wherever there is significant Venezuelan refugees.

[nonethewiser]

Im shocked that anyone would contest this.

[potsandpans]

It's completely baseless.

[solenoid0937]

Have you ever actually talked to a Venezuelan? I mean, come on. One thing that is indisputable is Venezuelans' hatred of Maduro.

[tdeck]

My question wasn't about whether he was popular, it was about whether people approve of this specific military action by the US. People can hate their leaders and still not want a foreign country directly replacing them.

[solenoid0937]

In this case you are just objectively wrong. Venezuelans are thrilled with this military action. They are happy they don't have to die by the millions to oust their dictator. For many, this was the best-case scenario (assuming democratic elections are held at some point in the future.)

[xg15]

Even with those who are happy that Maduro is gone, I can't imagine they could be happy about the US "running" the country and siphoning off the oil.

[googlryas]

Normal Venezuelans saw absolutely zero benefit from whatever oil revenue there was, so even in the worst case scenario, which is not a given, their lives would not be different.

[jdgoesmarching]

I swear these comments could be copy-pasted from NYT op-eds in 2004 regarding Iraq.

[SanjayMehta]

They're all greased by oil.

[N_Lens]

I think there's massive astroturfing with the usual talking points about drug trafficking, Maduro a dictator, Venezuelans are "Happy" plastered everywhere to try and distract from the naked fact of the oil.

[xg15]

Well, in which scenario WOULD they see benefit from the oil?

It's always slightly odd that a country with the largest oil reserves in the world doesn't manage to stock up its supermarkets.

I don't want to excuse corruption and cronyism, but surely, the US sanctions at least deserve a mention?

[woooooo]

First off, I'll give you credit for at least trying to justify this, it puts you ahead of the administration that can't even bother.

Second off, only #3b above (geopolitics) could possibly count at all. We support dozens of dictators, don't give a darn about their people as long as it's geopolitically useful. So I've been conditioned to assume it's bullshit when someone says "we're doing it for the people there".

Third, and to your #3.. it's Venezuela. No disrespect to the people there but it's not exactly the lynchpin of international relations. Is this really worth it? For some crude which is really high in sulfur and not even that important given fracking? Even if I'm a Henry Kissinger psychopath, this still doesn't make sense.

[aglavine]

I am not saying USA did this for the people.

I am saying that a wide majority of Venezolans are totally happy about this and most people here aren't concerned about this at all. They just want to talk about their pet political point.

About what are the reasons behind this I (and most people commenting here) can only have educated guess, but I wouldn't discard so easily to weaken cartels as a reason. It is the third (Cuba and Nicaragua the others) Country they got to totally control and the most important and they are powerful and organized enough to keep spreading, and they are supported by China.

[lukan]

"I am saying that a wide majority of Venezolans are totally happy about this"

How do you know that?

What I know anecdotically from other persons from latin america is, they are happy for Maduro to be gone, but fear of venezuela becoming a US colony.

[aglavine]

Maduro lost elections. 8 millions of exilees can't love him. And I interact daily with exilees. You can disagree. It is hard to believe narco dictators have too much love from people anyway.

[xg15]

This is a bit like saying "everyone hates the regime in Cuba. I've talked with lots of Cubans in Miami and they all say that".

[aglavine]

We are talking about 20% of the population here. A massive wave. They would be impoverished, imprisoned or dead have they not fled. Hard to believe people who stayed are happy about this.

But check the news, the web, talk to people objectively.I can be wrong, but I think the evidence is overwhelming, statistically speaking.Check for yourself.

[armenarmen]

My Venezuelan friends in the US are for the most part very happy about it. And this is not a gotcha at all, but I haven’t seen much about Venezuela in exporting fent to the US coming from anyone outside the Trump camp

[lukan]

No doubt that exilees do not love him. But it was about a "wide majority" who hold that opinion. There are lots of russian refugees for example as well and they are not a fan of Putin. But back at home he still seems to enjoy majority support in a broad sense at least and I have no inside knowledge into Venezuela at all.

[aglavine]

I don't know about Russia, maybe their economy didn't collapse as Venezuela's did. But I really don't know.

[arunabha]

I see you keep repeating this exact statement every time you are challenged and asked for actual sources. Others have pointed out that when you do provide some sources, they end up contradicting your position. If all you have is videos of people celebrating, then you can find plenty of those from Jan 6th. Does that mean that Biden lost the elections and the people of the United States approved of the attempted coup?

At this point, it's hard to imagine that you are actually arguing in good faith.

[solenoid0937]

Any argument along the lines of "Venezuelans aren't happy with this" out of touch with Venezuelan culture. They do not have to die by the millions to oust a dictator that killed thousands and caused 20% to emigrate. They are happy with this.

That is what OP is saying: HN users, in order to promote their personal politics, are being concerned for a people that don't want and actively reject your concern because they are happy with the outcome.

HN is doing the equivalent of (a) denying Venezuelans appreciate this, and when that fails (b) claiming they know better than Venezuelans wrt whether this is good or bad for them.

[CamperBob2]

It's not clear what this is really about. Trump doesn't care about the people of the US, much less Venezuela, but there seems to be a widespread consensus that Maduro was a nogoodnik who won't be missed. I have no idea what the mood on the ground really is.

As for drugs, if Trump cared about drugs, he wouldn't pardon so many drug kingpins.

Some say this has to do with asserting control over China's oil imports, but according to https://www.energypolicy.columbia.edu/sites/default/files/fi... and other sources, Venezuela barely makes it into the list of China's top 10 suppliers. So while China is indeed Venezuela's best customer, this argument doesn't seem persuasive unless I'm missing something. Venezuela's next-highest volume customer is the US itself.

[armenarmen]

one which concerns me is that the US cutting oil exports to Japan is the reason Pearl Harbor was bombed.

[aglavine]

I agree it is not clear.

My guess is drugs, not because Trump cares, but because they had become too powerful, controlling Venezuela, Cuba and Nicaragua, as well as a wide net of politicians.

[woooooo]

Thanks for engaging in good faith, but you know that China is selling more cars to all of Latin America than us currently, right?

Will this engagement deepen Latin American trust and respect for the US or the opposite? China makes it very clear that they do not give a shit about politics and just want to do good business, they're deepening ties that way. What's our plan? Invade random countries and tell them they better not cross us? How long does that work?

[aglavine]

Full diaclosure: I am from Argentina. I interact daily with exilees from Venezuela. They are coworkers, they drive my Uber. They are totally happy about this.

About trust and respect, I don't see any change. Leftist will keep their mantra and Normal people will mind their business.

About the 'master plan'. No one commenting here really knows. As I mentioned to avoid criminal cartels controlling three countries and spreading it is not something I would discard. Imagine if they get nukes. Or they can start to systematicallly buy politicians in USA, as they do in Mexico.

[MisterMower]

Increasing the supply of oil will lower its price. Bringing production in Venezuela back online will have this effect. Historically they have produced three million barrels per day, currently that number is closer to one million.

Russia is funding its war in Ukraine with profits on thier oil production. All else being equal, this makes it harder for them to keep doing that. They reportedly spent $6 billion on air defense systems in Venezuela, not for no reason.

Lower oil prices also reduce China’s dependence on Russia for energy. Reducing the incentive for those two countries two cooperate would be in US interests.

Energy is fungible and lower oil prices will help reduce the cost to operate AI data centers. On the margin it will improve their profitability and reduce public backlash about rising electricity prices in the US.

A large portion of the migrant crisis in the US has been driven by Venezuelan refugees fleeing Maduro’s gross mismanagement of the country. If the subsequent government can bring prosperity back to the country it also reduces illegal immigration in the US, something the current US administration clearly supports.

Lots of positive things could result here and you don’t have to be a “Kissinger psychopath” to imagine them and hope they materialize.

[doug_durham]

Ok, but at the cost of American freedoms? We are a country ruled by laws not people. Everything about this operation violated this principle. Are you willing to give up your freedoms in order to create cheap oil so that your scenarios play out? My ancestors didn't die on the battlefield to support such things.

[aglavine]

Venezuela was not a sovereign state, it wasn't people's will at all to have Maduro as head of state, rather the opposite is true.

[MisterMower]

What freedoms did you lose today? The Patriot Act was signed into law two decades ago. I can’t remember the last time Congress passed a declaration of war prior to the President engaging in military action.

I’m sympathetic to your sentiment but that train left the station likely before you were born.

[doug_durham]

I'm very likely older than you so I have total context going back to the 1970's. Your question is silly. You don't suddenly lose freedoms, they erode. The current executive overreach is without precedent. In prior administrations congress was involved. Even during the second Iraq war congress was involved and time was taken to make a justification. The action of today was by executive fiat.

[speakfreely]

> Is this really worth it? For some crude which is really high in sulfur and not even that important given fracking?

The US doesn't need their oil. It's about stopping China from getting it.

[yunnpp]

I am still confused about this. Is the goal for US companies to extract Venezuelan oil, or is it to suppress Venezuelan oil exports altogether? Or are both goals orthogonal?

[aglavine]

I don't think oil has something to do with this. As I have mentioned I think the main reason is the cartel has become too powerful and menacing, controlling three countries and expanding.

[yunnpp]

This argument doesn't stand a chance. The US military and intelligence is far outmatched. The drugs war is just a pretext.

[dboreham]

> ahead of the administration that can't even bother

It's possible they have tried to justify, but via Fox News and Truth Social. Neither of which you and I read, I presume.

[tdeck]

Most people in Crimea supported annexation by Russia. Does that make that one OK?

[mlindner]

They didn't actually though.

[the_gastropod]

With such a slam dunk case, it should have been a cakewalk to get UN buy-in, or at the very minimum, Republican-controlled congressional approval.

[nubg]

UN is deadlocked with Russia and China

[augusto-moura]

That is a one-sided list if I can see one, you basically copying and pasting the justification for invasion

[ToValueFunfetti]

They were responding to a comment that asked what the justification for invasion was; it would be weird if it was anything else

[augusto-moura]

You shouldn't be searching for the reasoning only on the official sources. Oil is clearly the biggest variable on this, not Maduro per se

[googlryas]

Everyone claimed we invaded Iraq back in the early 2000s to take their oil, but the US spent a whole bunch of money on the military operations, and opened up oil and gas to basically every other country, including geopolitical rivals like China and Russia. Maybe "oil" is too simple of an explanation.

[ineedaj0b]

Oil is important but as lever to pull on because it affects China.

The invasion is meant to orient the US to fight China. We are cutting away the Middle East war baggage, trying to end the Ukraine war baggage so we can focus on China. Russia would be a nice ally against China.

China was moving around Lat Am and we are removing the communists from the hemisphere.

China likes oil. Loves oil but can’t get enough oil which is why it’s building solar and nuclear so quickly. The US can clamp down on the oil if Venezuela is an ally. So the US wants a strong Venezuela that can’t be used against us.

It’s hard to conduct war without oil.

The US has a strong incentive to make sure Venezuela comes out strong, and the Chinese have a strong incentive to not let that happen.

tldr: it’s all about china

[aglavine]

Most people from Venezuela are happy Maduro is out. This is my main concern. Besides that I only have educated guesses.

[augusto-moura]

Sure, but don't forget the oil on your educated guess. There are other reasons besides the official being said. There's no invasion for justice, there's always an underlying motive for this scale of invasion. Presidents are not kidnapped because of narco traffic

[aglavine]

Whatever you and I say about this are educated guesses.

He wasn't the president. My educated guess is that with Cuba, Nicaragua and Venezuela, together with China support cartel become too powerful. They systematicallly buy politicians in México, Spain, Colombia, probably Brazil and Argentina. They expanded too much. But again, it is just speculation.

[augusto-moura]

I'm not Venezuelan, but I am Brazilian, so I consider myself closer to the problem than people outside of South America. If the cartels were the real problem, the US would have invaded Mexico or Brazil a long time ago.

Maduro was not fairly elected, it was a fraud, but he was the de facto head of state of Venezuela.

The whole cartel excuse is just a sham in my opinion, it is all about power, sending the example and getting the oil. Maduro, and Chavez before him, challenged the US grip on SA, and actively fought american interest in the region.

[aglavine]

It is a totally different business to invade a sovereign state like Mexico or Brazil. Something akin to what Russia is doing in Ukraine.

Venezuela was not a sovereign state, it wasn't people's will at all to have Maduro as head of state, rather the opposite is true.

As I have mentioned, we can only guess the real motivation behind this.

[johnnyanmac]

Okay. I'm an American. My main concern is not having us plunge into WW3. Good luck with your country.

[lurk2]

> Maduro was smuggling drugs in USA. Huge operations.

What evidence is there of that?

[bean469]

> Maduro was smuggling drugs in USA

Do you have sources for this not including the official White House position?

[MangoToupe]

> Most people from Venezuela are happy Maduro is out.

Is there any evidence of this?

[aglavine]

Maduro lost elections. 8 millions of exilees can't love him. And I interact daily with exilees. There are already videos if people celebrating in Caracas and all over the World. You can disagree. It is hard to believe narco dictators have too much love from people anyway.

[MangoToupe]

Typically exilees are exiled for a reason

[aglavine]

They would be impoverished, imprisoned or dead have they not fled. Hard to believe people who stayed are happy about this. And exilees are 20% of Venezuela's population. It was a massive wave.

[MangoToupe]

Well yes, this is how you treat shitty people

[solenoid0937]

Please read the HN guidelines[1] if you would like to continue engaging with the community.

Calling exilees "abusive shitbags"[2] and "shitty people" is not the kind of discourse we accept here.

[1]: https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html

[2]: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=46484264

[themafia]

> He was someone who took the country illegally with cartel people.

That's an allegation. We are from a nation of laws where this behavior within it's borders would be in violation of the constitution.

> Maduro was smuggling drugs in USA

Shall we talk about what the CIA has been doing in Venezuela for decades?

> You want China and Russia be there?

The worst form of whataboutism.

> And people from Venezuela were the biggest migration wave in the World last decades.

Is that because they hate Maduro or because they need money?

> You want millions of refugees?

We already have them. Can we /please/ talk about WHY without getting distracted by nonsense drug dealing claims?

[lurk2]

This style of commentary is obnoxious and not appropriate for this forum.

[themafia]

Asking questions in good faith is not appropriate?

If difference exist between two people then the quickest way to resolve them is to reveal them. It seems some people prefer to paw around in the dark out of deference. I did not believe this was part of the "hacker ethic."

[lurk2]

> Asking questions in good faith is not appropriate?

You aren't asking questions in good faith, you're trying to score points.

> It seems some people prefer to paw around in the dark out of deference.

You're doing it here, implying that I'm a deferential coward instead of stating it outright. I would urge you to review the site guidelines. The only reason this site is worth visiting in the first place is because it isn't ordinarily full of the sort of Reddit-style commentary you're engaging in right now.

https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html

[ath3nd]

Thoroughly answering somebody's questions and refuting their points is not appropriate for this forum?

We should all agree with each other and sing along how lucky Venezuelans are that US, the self proclaimed world police, came to steal their oil and bomb their capital (terrorism/war crime)?

[johnnyanmac]

1) the method the US performed is irrespective of popular sentiment. If we were to buck the rules, I'm not sure if Venezuela would make the top 10 targets.

3) Trump pardoned the Honduras president. The drug smuggling excuse is moot. This is a power grab, as usual. And it came from Trump's mouth. We're no better than Russia if we choose to go with this narrative.

[spacechild1]

> Why? Maduro was smuggling drugs in USA. Huge operations.

What are you talking about? The war on drugs is just a bad excuse. Trump keeps claiming that Venezuela is responsible for the fentanyl crisis, which is demonstrably wrong.

And if the US administration was so worried about drugs, why did Trump pardon Juan Orlando Hernández, ex-president of Honduras, who had been sentenced to 45 years for drug trafficking? https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c9qewln7912o

[potsandpans]

If Russia rolled into the United States tomorrow and deposed Trump, _most people_ would "be happy" trump was out.

It's not important at all. I've seen this exact line repeated all over the Internet today, almost like it's not a real sentiment and instead a pre seeded talking point to muddy the waters.

It is amusing to see the consent factory so efficiently spit this shit out though.

[rambojohnson]

"huge operations", wtf are you talking about? get off newsweek.

[ycombinary]

You have to be pretty naive at this point to believe any of these points are actually real reasons behind this action, esp. 1 or 2.

[aglavine]

I never said that. I said that a wide majority of Venezolans are happy and this was barely mentioned in the comments.