[kledru]

Not only the region... A worry is the step will encourage other regimes that feel they have might to remove leaders they do not like and replace them with marionette-like figures. Also, here we have another permanent member of UN Security Council making decisions to intervene without consulting the UN or even their own constitutional bodies...

(My opinion of Maduro is that he was not a legitimate leader.)

[baubino]

Especially when no nation wants to touch this (e.g., Starmer being very quick to say that the UK wasn’t involved, etc.), it only reinforces that any power willing or able to make a bold move like this will likely not face much opposition (also see Russia in Ukraine).

[Helmut10001]

The most prominent case for such a future would be china moving against Taiwan, which now got easier with two of the 3 big world powers making their move.

[nevertoolate]

Taiwan is a different story. There are quite detailed war simulations built for defending the country. I guess you might mean that russia is one of the “3 big world” powers and their move is the special operations to capture kiev. I stop here

[Helmut10001]

Yes, I meant China, Russia and the US with the "3 big world" powers and yes, I was referring to the war in Ukraine. I am aware that the situation in Taiwan, Ukraine and Venezuela cannot be compared one-to-one. My categorization was not intended to suggest that these 'moves' are the same, nor to make any evaluation regarding good or bad. From the respective perspectives of the 3 world powers, they have been motivated by different interests. The important point is that each of the three will use the moves of the others to justify their own, whether this is correct or not.

[komali2]

What frustrates me is the justification I hear for this from those opposed to the kidnapping of Maduro, an illegitimate president.

Somehow it's not ok for the USA to violently meddle in the internal affairs of another country, but it is for the PRC because... Taiwan is nearby? Because the people speak the same language? Because the ghosts of the CPC's past are here on the island? It's frustrating.

[trvz]

Taiwan is stronger than Venezuela.

China is much weaker than the Golden Empire.

[vmg12]

> A worry is the step will encourage other regimes that feel they have might to remove leaders they do not like and replace them with marionette-like figures

Go type "list Russian regime change operations from the last 20 years" in chatgpt.

[amelius]

No need for LLMs:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_involvement_in_regime_...

[kledru]

Can't rule out Leopold's Congo scenario, as the first comments do not look good:

* resource extraction focus

* dismissal of local leadership (Machado "does not have the following or respect" -- Nobel hurting?)

* no transition plan to self-governance (perhaps it is early)

* military occupation ("not afraid of boots on the ground", "military will protect oil operations")

[filoeleven]

These things happened today subsequent to Venezuela:

North Korea ‘has fired ballistic missile towards the Sea of Japan’ https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/jan/03/north-korea-ha...

UK and France carry out strikes against Isis target in Syria https://www.the-independent.com/news/uk/politics/uk-france-s...

[gnull]

It's not just encouraging, it's almost making it a necessity. Putting aside one's respect for law may be a matter of responsibility when your competitors are gaining advantage by not playing by the rules.

[immibis]

The UN permanent security council members are (or were meant to be) precisely the countries that are so powerful they can choose to invade you and nobody can stop them. The hope was that by letting them veto you, they'll veto you instead of invading you.

[physicsguy]

Don't think that's true of Britain and France these days...

[tokai]

Britain for sure, but France's military is explicitly build up as an expeditionary force.

[physicsguy]

In theory but without allies they're not able to in practice.

[gorbachev]

Xi Jinping is probably sending thank you cards to Trump right about now.

[cman1444]

Indeed. If I'm Xi, I'm invading Taiwan tomorrow. Russia invading Ukraine, USA decapitating Venezuela....there's not even a pretense that international law matters any more.

It's also clear that Trump only respects power, which China clearly has. He already backed off tariffs with the critical minerals threat. Unlikely he'd come to Taiwan's aid in my opinion.

With political polarization in America, you can bet all kinds of fingers would start pointing at Trump in America, saying he enabled it by meddling with Venezuela. Stock market collapse from TSMC blockade would enhance this even moreso. I wouldn't count on much, if any, rallying around the flag effect.

[MisterMower]

I’m skeptical any of this is true.

How does Maduro being ousted change the physical realities of an amphibious invasion of Taiwan? You think international law is what has been preventing Xi from invading?

Trump does only respect power, as do all other serious leaders. Power is all that matters in the end.

How do you think the system of international law came into existence? It was imposed by the US at the end of WWII because of their overwhelming military strength and the fact that no other nation had nuclear weapons at the time.

The armchair analysis from some folks on this topic is really lacking. You guys are just wrong, and the hubris you bring with your “analysis” is really off putting.

[cman1444]

>How does Maduro being ousted change the physical realities of an amphibious invasion of Taiwan? You think international law is what has been preventing Xi from invading?

It doesn't change the physical realities of that much at all besides maybe slightly further cementing that the US will not come to Taiwan's aid.

No, the main change is that now Xi can more reliably expect a weaker, less unified response from the west due to political divisions inside America as well as between western nations. He can expect less diplomatic pushback, fewer sanctions, etc.

Also, no all serious leaders do not only respect power. Serious leaders who are also morally and ethically good also take into account right and wrong when they make decisions.

The right thing to do would be for America to try to preserve and enforce a rules based order, regardless if other countries do. America has significant agency in the world and should consider how the world should be and try to get there. Not only consider how the world is.

[darkerside]

Even from a realpolitik standpoint, there is benefit on showing consistent adherence to an ethical code. It encourages other actors to follow that same code as well. When we violate our own morals and values, we can't expect others to respect them.

[MisterMower]

How does one nation following an ethical code encourage others to follow it as well?

Following an ethical code in international affairs constrains the nation following it. It provides an asymmetric advantage to others who choose not to follow that code.

This is partly why China has become so powerful over the past three decades. They chose to ignore western ethical codes around intellectual property rights, fair trade, environmental protections, and human rights. They are powerful today in no small part to their willingness to disregard these things.

This is difficult for people to understand because in interpersonal relationships following an ethical code is 100% the path to healthy and meaningful relationships, and most modern history education attempts to anthropomorphize past interactions between nations. But the cold fact is that international politics is nothing like interpersonal relationships.

A nation can encourage other nations to follow their ethical code by threatening to use force if they don't. They can create incentives to encourage nations to change their behavior through trade or treaty. But I can't think of a single time in history when a nation was such a shining star of morality that they inspired other nations to change their ways and adopt their ethics.

You can't expect other nations to respect your nation's moral and ethical values when they don't care about them in the first place and in fact hope that you choose to follow them to the fullest extent so that you're easier to compete against.

[DecoySalamander]

> maybe slightly further cementing that the US will not come to Taiwan's aid

Isn't that the opposite? The US just demonstrated that it can still conduct military operations, and the presence of Chinese envoys in the country does not deter it in any way. As of now, China has one fewer source of oil it can rely on in case of an invasion.

[cman1444]

Maybe you're right, but I view it more as: China can now be confident that the US doesn't care much at all about the sovereignty of weaker nations or coming to the aid of allies. "Might makes right", and if China asserts itself with strength (as in a full blockade/invasion instead of a few envoys present) Trump will most likely back off.

[xpe]

> Power is all that matters in the end.

This can mean different things to different people, such as:

(A) Power dynamics determine outcomes i.e. a claim about how the world works

(B) Might makes right i.e. rejecting ethical notions of right and wrong

I'm pretty sure you mean (A). Fair? Are there other meanings you want to endorse? Some form of nihilism perhaps?

[xpe]

> The armchair analysis from some folks on this topic is really lacking. You guys are just wrong, and the hubris you bring with your “analysis” is really off putting.

From https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html

> Please don't fulminate. Please don't sneer, including at the rest of the community.

> Be kind. Don't be snarky. Converse curiously; don't cross-examine. Edit out swipes.

I have put in good faith efforts to convert with MisterMower, for example, in [1]. Shortly after that, they insulted me. [2] This is also against the HN Guidelines, and that kind of behavior is not welcome here. Here are additional examples of hostility and insults they've made:

> Old farts like yourself [3]

> In case you don't understand how analogies work [4]

[1]: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=46488285

[2]: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=46495327

[3]: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=46491155

[4]: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=45001357

[komali2]

> How does Maduro being ousted change the physical realities of an amphibious invasion of Taiwan?

Taking the beaches here would require spilling the blood of tens of thousands of PLA troops, but as demonstrate two days ago, the only real barrier to blockading us was the threat of the USA showing up.

Xi's hunger for Taiwan shouldn't be underestimated. It's utterly irrational but it is his obsession. It's becoming clear he intends to die in office, and he's seeing his legacy as a mirror of that of the entire communist revolution - he wants to be the next Mao, with a permanent framed photo on the wall of every school and many houses in the PRC. Mao was happy to waste millions of PLA in every conflict the PRC engaged in as an outright military strategy, he called it something like "drowning the enemy in a sea of bodies," Xi will be the same.

[MisterMower]

I don’t dispute Xi wants Taiwan. My question still stands: how did today’s events change any of the hurdles he would face during an invasion?

[komali2]

Oh, yes I agree for the most part none other than perhaps the USA military is about to be distracted by South America.

Xi himself probably already had war gamed what it would look like to kidnap the president here in Taiwan from the presidential palace or whatever. The main difference is, now we're all talking about it - if it was that easy to snatch a president, will the PRC try it against us? Will the KMT throw Lai under the bus so the PLA can do a targeted kidnapping or assassination, perhaps alongside his US-friendly VP?

[jacquesm]

Taiwan could easily become China's Ukraine.

[UltraSane]

An invasion of Taiwan is incredibly risky for China and will be guaranteed to be very expensive.

[wslh]

Just guessing but a long term strategy from Xi could be to wait and show that he is different and gain simpathy.

[pembrook]

Except this was already going to happen and everybody has known for years.

Xi made a new years address just a few days ago essentially saying China would reunite Taiwan.

[komali2]

> reunite

This is the incorrect word to use since the PRC has never held territory here. If the PLA sets foot on Taiwan, that's an imperialist invasion, nothing less, unless the people of Taiwan have democratically chosen to abdicate their government for CPC rule, in which case the word should be "unify" or "merge."

[mytailorisrich]

Reunite is not incorrect in the broader sense.

We use the term "reunification" for Germany but the Federal Republic never "held territory" in the Democratic Republic. However, of course both states were the result of a split of "Germany". This is the same with the ROC and PRC so bringing both sides together, whatever the mean, is a reunification in that sense.

The narrative of rejecting the term can be said to be broadly propaganda but plays on a peculiarity that both sides don't recognise each others.

[jacquesm]

> However, of course both states were the result of a split of "Germany".

> This is the same with the ROC and PRC

It really isn't.

Note that West Germany did not have to invade East Germany to re-unify and that East Germany was on a per-capita basis much poorer than West Germany.

Unlike Taiwan, which is doing more than twice as good. So this would be more in line with Russia invading Ukraine. And that's precisely the rhetoric they are using: 'unification'.

[jacquesm]

China would invade Taiwan.

You're subconsciously echoing Chinese propaganda.

[mytailorisrich]

Invade Taiwan to reunite China.

This is a factual statement, not propaganda. The propaganda (or political theatre in mainland China) is that the ROC does not exist and Taiwan is part of the PRC.

[jacquesm]

Reunite is propaganda because it gives credibility to the lie that these two countries are and/or were one like for instance Germany after world war II.

Taiwanese do not see themselves as Chinese, just like Ukrainians do not see themselves as Russian even if they speak the language. By playing along you are effectively carrying water for the Chinese. That may be your goal, but then you should be clear about that. If that is not your goal you should refrain from adopting the language of the party that is clearly the aggressor here. The 'ROC' moniker stems from a bunch of Chinese that fled there in 1949 after they lost their struggle with the communists inside China. They ruled Taiwan and they named it 'Republic of China', a name that has caused a lot of confusion with those unfamiliar with where it came from.

This is the reason the Chinese now lay claim to Taiwan, and it is about as misguided as it gets. They got Hong Kong by being patient, they may take Taiwan by force.

If you are playing into their hands by parroting their terminology you are fractionally helping to normalize their behavior towards Taiwan. If it should come to pass that China will take Taiwan by force that will have grave consequences, for the Taiwanese, the Chinese and the rest of the world as well due to the central spot that Taiwan occupies in the global supply chain.

[pembrook]

Duh, yes obviously that means invasion.

I was just quoting the actual speech. The point is, for anyone claiming the US attempting regime change in Venezuela is going to factor into China's long standing plans to invade Taiwan is delusional.

The US has been involved in regime change operations spanning like 40+ different countries, and almost continuously for a century. This is not a unique event in even recent US history, even though folks with orange-man syndrome would like you to believe otherwise.

As if Xi is thinking "gee, I'd really like to invade Taiwan, but people might get upset! If only Trump would conduct the US's 5th regime change operation this decade...then people would...not care anymore about Taiwan or something?? Wait, this fantasy may have logical flaws..."

The bending over backwards that Americans do to convince themselves the US is responsible for everything that happens is always amusing.

[orangeboats]

Very apt username for the occasion.

[abirch]

Taiwan's President should definitely be worried.

[lukan]

I guess they are, because china was (or still is) practicing blocking of Taiwan. And Trump made somewhat a commitment to Taiwan, but who knows if there won't be a better deal with china tomorrow?

[throwaway1389z]

CHIPS and Science Act disagrees with "commitment" to the tune of 280 billion, considering that Chip manufacturing is the life blood of Taiwan.

[tooltalk]

why? Xi already made his intention with Taiwan clear many years ago. Besides, Xi, while pretending to be neutral, has become the major backer of Putin's war effort. It's not like Trump is doing anything special.

[SauntSolaire]

That's the point of being a permanent member of UN Security Council -- it's a position of power, not of subordination.