[JumpCrisscross]

Boat nonsense aside, if Trump has actually pulled this off while mostly striking military targets, that's (a) impressive and (b) possibly–possibly!–worth celebrating.

The caveat is what happens next. If a stable government emerges, that's okay. If a stable government emerges that holds free and fair elections, that's brilliant. If, on the other hand, the power vacuum prompts a civil war and refugee crisis because nobody–again–planned for what happens after regime decapitation, well fuck.

(We really need to repeal the War Powers Act [1].)

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/War_Powers_Resolution

[defterGoose]

I see it's still the season of perpetual hope wherever you are...

[JumpCrisscross]

> it's still the season of perpetual hope wherever you are

At this moment in time, the President has bombed Caracas (presumably under the War Powers Act [1]) and claims to have captured Maduro.

From here, there are paths that wind up marginally good and many that end up somewhat catastrophically. Few wind up great. Few wind up as total shitshows (the risk in this being a Venezuelan civil war).

Seeing that there are positive possible outcomes isn't an expression of naive hope. It's identifying possible futures. I have no clue, personally, how to prevent a civil war in Venezuela–I'm neither hopeful nor on the edge of my seat.

And again, none of this justifies the actions. A gambler may win big betting his house. That doesn’t make it a good call, even if we can recognise that the outcome wound up favourably.

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/War_Powers_Resolution#Provisio...

[JohnFen]

Regardless of the outcome, this is an act and moment of great shame. There is nothing worth celebrating here.

[blob17]

Are you sure your government is attacking because of free elections?

[JumpCrisscross]

> Are you sure your government is attacking because of free elections?

Never said that. I said this could wind up being net good if that's the outcome. Doesn't make the way we would have gotten there okay. And it doesn't mean that was a primary or even proximate goal for the people who called the shots.

[blob17]

are you saying this as a local to the area or as an american living in america projecting your vision of "net good" lmao.

[JumpCrisscross]

> as an american living in america projecting your vision of "net good"

American living in America who knows Venzeulans in America, most of whom didn't want this.

But. All of whom would want their country to democratise. Whether blowing up the capital and kidnapping their dictator causes that to happen is questionable. But Venezuela has cultural memory of democracy. (On the other hand, there seems to be zero effort–again!–towards an after-the-bombs plan. I'll also note that this administration isn't exactly a fan, itself, of free and fair elections.)

[titoktok]

but. leave others alone

[7bit]

> But.

Should have stopped there...

[blob17]

lol bro u realize if ur a minority in your flavor of democracy u still lose right? thats why they need entire campaigns to brainwash you on what's good for you on ur voter leaflets.

[JumpCrisscross]

> voter leaflets

Where are you getting your information?

[mothballed]

It's incredibly common to hear it from locals but they usually get ignored [] because it doesn't fit the anglo-centric narrative.

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=46474353

[matheusmoreira]

I live in one of Venezuela's neighboring countries. Everybody knows he wants the oil. Everybody knows there's pretty much nothing we can do if he attacks in order to get it. America's military capabilities are so far beyond south america that it's actually pretty sad. There's nothing to do but try to look at the bright side.

Honestly, I was hoping for an actual war against the drug gangs. Had he gone to war and won, he would have taken care of a huge problem for us. I for one would have been extremely grateful. Now it looks like he's going to get his oil without any fighting whatsoever.

[mooglevich]

FWIW - I don't 100% agree with you, but I did want to say thanks for at least posting your thoughts, and qualifying them.

(Adding my comment since there's a good amount of pushback, most of which I roughly agree with, but I think it's important to say thanks for maintaining a civil dialogue and discussion where we don't see 100% eye-to-eye. This also goes for all those who are replying to you as well. It's great to have civil discourse.)

[JumpCrisscross]

Nichols at The Atlantic said it better: “So far, Trump seems to have executed a bad idea well” [1].

[1] https://www.theatlantic.com/international/2026/01/maybe-russ...

[mamonster]

The global impact of this is that nuclear non-proliferation is basically about to die. Iran, Ukraine, Venezuela and the complete absence of any regime change attempts in North Korea is enough evidence.

[JumpCrisscross]

Let’s be real, it’s been toast since the Iran-Israel versus Russia-Ukraine split screen. Bending over backward to help a nuclear power while doing the same to avoid irritating another.

Poland, Taiwan and Ukraine should try to get nuclear weapons. Unfortunately, so should Saudi Arabia, the U.A.E. and Iran.

[mamonster]

>Poland, Taiwan and Ukraine should try to get nuclear weapons.

Poland is gonna get them in 2026 in a roundabout way because I fully expect Macron to actually extend the French nuclear umbrella to the EU as he has hinted he wants to do.

The other 2 countries won't happen ever. The moment you start a nuclear program you are a rogue state for the US and those 2 countries rely too much on the US, especially Taiwan.

>Saudi Arabia, the U.A.E and Iran Well Iran is working on theirs. The other 2 don't have state capacity to develop their own nuclear program so unless Putin sells them nukes I really don't know how they would do it.

[faidit]

Trump is a criminal who just completely violated international law to steal another country's resources. Nothing impressive or worth celebrating about this kidnapping, period.

They can't have free and fair elections when the US is literally holding their president hostage. And dictatorships like Saudi Arabia are just fine apparently.

[andrewinardeer]

Maduro's last two elections werent even close to free and fair. To throw the phrase 'free and fair' into the same sentence as 'Maduro' is ridiculous.

[faidit]

I didn't say they were. What's ridiculous is to suggest that piracy, war crimes and kidnapping by the dictator-loving Trump regime will bring about free elections.

[andrewinardeer]

Why not? The Venezuelan opposition will more than likely be installed and these are the people who won the previous election.

[Tadpole9181]

No, the VP of Maduro was installed. His party still holds all power and Venezuela's democracy is still dead. But now they're also a puppet state allowing the US to extract their oil for profit.

[jacquesm]

This comment didn't age very well.

[7bit]

> mostly striking military targets

You are ok with Trump invading a neighbour country, kidnapping a person while accepting some civilian casualties?

I wonder what you would think if Canada would invade the USA and kidnapping Trump and other criminals.

This strike was not sanctioned by Venezuela. They are sovereign and they have the right to deal with their affairs in their own way. The USA -- as so often in history -- are playing judge, jury and executioner in foreign countries. They violated international law. The fact that you want to celebrate this says a lot about your attitude towards sovereignty , due process and human life.

[JumpCrisscross]

> You are ok with Trump invading a neighbour country, kidnapping a person while accepting some civilian casualties?

Nope. But I’m saying this could potentially turn out okay.

Probably not. We probably get a civil war or like Cuba moonshotting for nukes. But there are avenues from this point on where it could wind up okay. (I would not have expected we’d have nabbed Maduro so quickly twelve hours ago.)

> They violated international law

I mean, this is dead. China, Russia and America have explicitly called it dead. Iran, Israel, India and France, too. It’s basically Brussels and Brazil still respecting it, and neither is a military power.

[dxdm]

Yeah, that makes it such a weird notion to want to celebrate here. I mean, even if Venezuelans get really lucky and come out ahead, the global net result of actions like this is hardly going to be positive.