[throw1235435]

Indeed it did; I remember those times. All else being equal I still think SWE salaries on average would of been higher if we kept it like that given basic economics - there would of been a lot less people capable of doing it but the high ROI automation opportunities would of still been there. The fact that "it sucked" usually creates more scarcity on the supply side; which all being equal means higher wages and in our capitalist society - status. Other professions that are older as to the parent comment already know this and don't see SWE as very "street smart" disrupting themselves. I've seen articles recently like "at least we aren't in coding" from law, accounting, etc an an anecdote to this.

With AI at least locally I'm seeing the opposite now - less hiring, less wage pressure and in social circles a lot less status when I mention I'm a SWE (almost sympathy for my lot vs respect only 5 years ago). While I don't care for the status aspect, although I do care for my ability to earn money, some do.

At least locally inflation adjusted in my city SWE wages bought more and were higher in general compared to others in the 90's-2000's than on wards (ex big tech). Partly because this difficulty and low level knowledge meant only very skilled people could participate.

[luckylion]

Monopolizing the work doesn't work unless you have the power to suppress anyone else joining the competition, i.e. "certified developers only".

Otherwise people would have realized they can charge 3x as much by being 5x as productive with better tools while you're writing your code in notepad for maximum ROI, and you would have either adjusted or gone out of business.

Increased productivity isn't a choice, it's a result of competition. And that's a good thing overall, even if it sucks for some developers who now have to actually work for the first time in decades. But it's good for society at large, because more things can be done.

[throw1235435]

Sure - I agree with that, and I agree its good for society but as you state probably not as good for the SWE who has to work harder for the same which was my point and I think you agree. Other professions have done what you have stated (i.e. certification) and seen higher wages than otherwise which also proves my point. They see this as the "street smart" thing to do, and generally society respects them for it putting their profession on a higher pedestal as a result. People respect people who take care of themselves first generally I find as well. Personally I think there should be a balance between the two (i.e. a fair go for all parties; a fair day's work with some job security over a standard career lifetime but not extortionary).

Also your notion of "better tools" may of not happened, or happened more slowly without open source, AI, etc which would of meant higher salaries for longer most probably. That's where I disagree with the parent poster's claim of higher salaries - AI seems to be a great recent example of "better tools" disrupting the premium SWE's enjoy rather than improving their salaries. Whether that's fair or not is a different debate.

I was just doubting the notion of the parent comment that "open source software" and "automated testing" create higher salaries. Usually efficiency economically (some exceptional cases) creates lower salaries for the people who are made more efficient all else being equal - and the value shifts from them to either consumers or employers.

[luckylion]

> Other professions have done what you have stated (i.e. certification) and seen higher wages than otherwise which also proves my point.

I'd generally agree with that if it regards to safety (e.g. industrial control systems), but we manage that by certifying the manufacturer, not the individual developer. But otherwise I think it's harmful to society, even if beneficial to the individuals - but there's a lot of things falling in that bucket, and it's usually not the things we strive for at a societal level.

In my experience, getting better and faster has always translated into being paid more. I don't know that there's a direct relationship to specific tools, but I'm pretty sure that the mainstreaming of software development has caused the huge inflation of total comp that you see in many companies. If it was slow and there's only this handful of people that can do it, but they're not really adding a huge amount of value, you wouldn't be seeing that kind of multiplier vs the average job.

[throw1235435]

> But otherwise I think it's harmful to society, even if beneficial to the individuals

I disagree a little in that stability/predictability to people also adds some benefit to society - constant disruption/change for the sake of efficiency I believe at extreme levels would be bad for mental health at the very least and probably cause some level of outrage and dysfunction. I know as an SWE tbh I'm feeling a bit of it - can't imagine if it was everyone.

I personally think there is a tradeoff; people on average have limits to adaptability in their lifetimes and so it needs to be worth it for people to invest and enter in a given profession (some level of economic profit that makes their limited time worth spending in it). It shouldn't be excessive though - it should be where both client and producer get fair/equal value for the time/effort they both need to put in.

[ipdashc]

> ex big tech

I mean, this seems like a pretty big thing to leave out, no? That's where all the crazy high salaries were!

Also, there are still legacy places that more or less build software like it's 1999. I get the impression that embedded, automotive, and such still rely a lot on proprietary tools, finicky manual processes, low level languages (obviously), etc. But those are notorious for being annoying and not very well paid.

[throw1235435]

I'm talking about what I perceive to be the median salary/conditions with big tech being only a part of that. My point is more that I remember back in that period good salaries could be had outside big tech too even in the boring standard companies that you state. I remember banks, insurance, etc paying very well for example compared to today for an SWE/tech worker - the good opportunities seemed more distributed. For example I've seen contract rates for some of the people we hire haven't really changed for 10 years for developers. Now at best they are on par with other professional white collar workers; and the competition seems fiercer (e.g. 5 interviews for a similar salary with leetcode games rather than experienced based interviews).

Making software easier and more abstract has allowed less technical people into the profession, allowed easier outsourcing, meant more competition/interview prep to filter out people (even if the skills are not used in the job at all), more material for AI to train on, etc. To the parent comment's point I don't think it has boosted salaries and/or conditions on average for the SWE - in the long run (10 years +) it could be argued that economically the opposite has occurred.