[Teever]

Let's say I'm mildly convinced by your argument. I've read your blog post that was popular on HN a week or so ago and I've made similar little toy programs with AI that scratch a particular niche.

Do you care to make any concrete predictions on when most developers will embrace this new normal as part of their day to day routine? One year? Five?

And how much of this is just another iteration in the wheel of recarnation[0]? Maybe we're looking at a future where we see return to the monoculture library dense supply chain that we use today but the libraries are made by swarms of AI agents instead and the programmer/user is responsible for guiding other AI agents to create business logic?

[0] https://www.computerhope.com/jargon/w/wor.htm

[simonw]

It's really hard to predict how other developers are going to work, especially given how resistant a lot of developers are to fully exploring the new tools.

I do think there's been a bit of a shift in the last two months, with GPT 5.1 and 5.2 Codex and Opus 4.5.

We have models that can reliably follow complex instructions over multiple hour projects now - that's completely new. Those of us at the cutting edge are still coming to terms with the consequences of this (as illustrated by this Karpathy tweet).

I don't trust my predictions myself, but I think the next few months are going to see some big changes in terms of what mainstream developers understand these tools as being capable of.

[mkozlows]

"The future is already here, it's just unevenly distributed."

At some companies, most developers already are using it in their day to day. IME, the more senior the developer is, the more likely they are to be heavily using LLMs to write all/most of their code these days. Talking to friends and former coworkers at startups and Big Tech (and my own coworkers, and of course my own experience), this isn't a "someday" thing.

People who work at more conservative companies, the kind that don't already have enterprise Cursor/Anthropic/OpenAI agreements, and are maybe still cautiously evaluating Copilot... maybe not so much.