[mxschumacher]

there was a rush to buy electric cars in the US for as long as the $7500 incentive was in place, so the Q3 2025 number if inflated; it's a pull forward effect.

Sales have been flat for 3 years and the delivery numbers in Europe are catastrophic

on a fully diluted basis, the market cap is above $1.6tn, so at a PE of 20, they'd have to generate something like $80bn in profit per year - hard to do in an industry that is as brutally competitive and low margin as passenger cars.

[abirch]

Not to mention China heavily subsidizing BYD.

[_t9ow]

It's a myth that China heavily subsidises its EV industry. See e.g. this Bloomberg article titled "China Can't Cut EV Subsidies It Isn't Paying": https://archive.ph/5olix

[andsoitis]

> It's a myth that China heavily subsidises its EV industry.

We must live in parallel universes.

From 2009 to 2022, China offered national purchase subsidies for EV buyers. Peak subsidies: ¥40,000–60,000 per vehicle (~$6k–9k). Combined with local subsidies, some buyers paid 30–40% less than market cost. These subsidies were phased down and formally ended in 2022, but the industry had already reached massive scale.

This policy alone created the world’s largest EV market.

Even after direct subsidies ended, China continues to provide: EV purchase tax exemptions (10% tax waived), extended through 2027.

China provides EV manufacturers with: Cheap or free land, Low-interest or state-directed loans, Preferential electricity pricing, Grants for factories, R&D, and tooling, State-backed battery supply chains.

China strategically subsidized battery production: CATL, BYD, and others received R&D grants, Guaranteed demand, Export financing.

China now controls ~75% of global lithium refining and ~80% of battery cell manufacturing.

This dramatically lowers EV costs versus foreign competitors.

No value judgement about subsidizing, but to say it is a myth that China has and continues to subsidize their EV industry is false.

[abirch]

From the article that you added in addition to the statements below, I don't think BYD is succeeding only by subsidies. I'm solely stating that they're heavily subsidized. China has a strategy where most western nations don't appear to have one.

----

It might be tempting when one has been asleep at the wheel to chalk up the rise of Chinese carmakers led by BYD to unfair subsidies, especially since leaders in Washington and Brussels have done so. No doubt, China is far from a free, fair and open market. The scale and pervasiveness of corporate subsidies at the federal and local level far exceed what other market-based economies offer.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2024-10-17/byd-s-...

----

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-11-10/china-s-c...

[overfeed]

> China has a strategy where most western nations don't appear to have one.

EVs were subsidised in the west, e.g. in California (#4 "country" by GDP), Norway, and US tax incentives - which have gone away after the Trump anti-renewables Bill of 2025. MRSPs for EVs were slashed after September 2025 due to the loss of this subsidy, and 2 months later Ford cancelled it's electric F-150 program.

[dzhiurgis]

How come BYD’s stock price is essentially flat?

[andsoitis]

> How come BYD’s stock price is essentially flat?

Their profit growth has slowed (significant drops in profit YoY). Even revenue has dropped in some quarters.

Investors had very high growth expectations given their past rapid expansion, but investors now see only moderate growth.

Intense competition and pricing pressure.

China EV market is slowing. Overcapacity is emerging over the sector and govt subsidies are softening.

Finally, global macro and sentiment towards Chinese stocks is cautious.

[guru4consulting]

We often think market is rational but it is not. If it is, then BYD would be priced like Tesla, and Tesla would have been priced like BYD.

[Analemma_]

Lately I've realized that "Chinese subsidies" are psychologically useful for people outside China to believe in, as cope to handwave away their own failing industries. Solar panels aren't really subsidized in China either.

[abirch]

China has a plan. It subsidizes technology that it sees as important. There's nothing wrong with that per se.

It'd like me saying that Barry Bonds only won the home run records because he used steroids. It wasn't entirely the steroids but I'm sure they certainly didn't hurt.

[delusional]

> There's nothing wrong with that per se.

Contemporary western capitalism would disagree. You can never subsidize technology cleanly, only an organization of people working with that technology. We would usually denounce that as "picking winners" in our system.

[stevenhuang]

Solar panels were explicitly targeted as a central planning directive and so manufacturers received many direct and indirect subsidies lol, these are well known facts. We should be subsidizing solar energy in the west too, as we've subsidized the oil and gas industries. To say China haven't subsidized solar is just not being real.

[happosai]

Currently Chinese are competitive because because developers work on burnout level intensity and workers have no life but factory around the clock.

Of course, the salaries and working conditions are going up in China while west is eroding worker rights as fast as we can. One the factories will come back here simply because we'll end up cheaper. Don't buy solar made by Xinjiang forced labor, by solar panels made by illegal immigrant prison labor!

[mxschumacher]

there are around 140 EV companies in china competing very aggressively, they have excess capacity and are flooding the world market with cheap EVs, tough for Tesla to have a healthy margin in that environment

[vkou]

BYD's exports are not subsidized, and are, in fact, a massive cash cow for the firm.

They are also way cheaper and at comparable quality to western cars.

[monero-xmr]

It’s also Americans realized how inconvenient electric cars are. I take a fair amount of road trips. I don’t have the time to wait 30 minutes minimum to charge. And if there’s a line it’s even worse. And in the winter the heater reduces the distance a ton. It just isn’t practical

[azinman2]

I’ve found the charging to be a non issue. It’s basically timed with bathroom / food breaks.

[monero-xmr]

I have found charging to be a huge issue, and so has the majority of Americans (clearly). But why let facts interrupt an HN circle jerk?

[AnIrishDuck]

I personally have taken several road trips (1000+ miles) with an EV across the United States and have not found charging to be a "huge issue".

But I (clearly) must be wrong, sorry to disagree with the spokesman of America.

[jfoster]

How many hundreds of miles do you typically drive at a time?