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by marcosdumay 170 days ago
> but even that has serious issues for Europe's export oriented economies

Hum... There are no reliable numbers out there, but I don't think the dollar devaluation has been keeping up with the US inflation.

And if so, no, Europe's exports are becoming more competitive, not less.
1 comments
mgh95 170 days ago
> Hum... There are no reliable numbers out there, but I don't think the dollar devaluation has been keeping up with the US inflation.

There isn't anything like "dollar devaluation has been keeping up with the US inflation". You are interested in what is called the import/export price index [1] and for imports that has been relatively flat for the past ~24 months(import +.3%, export +3.8% for TTM). So in a sense, imports for a fixed good are relatively unchanged in constant-currency terms.

It's more along the lines of "if the EUR goes to 1.5, what does this do to eurozone economies?" and the answer to that isn't pretty for europe. This would greatly impair the economy of Germany and other large eurozone economies pretty substantially(see this article for why [2]).

And finally, remember: the US actually exports inflation [3]. Most economies cannot simply say no to this effect.

[1]https://www.bls.gov/mxp/ [2]https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2025-10-06/europe... [3] https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-07-18/strong-us...

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marcosdumay 170 days ago
> It's more along the lines of "if the EUR goes to 1.5, what does this do to eurozone economies?" and the answer to that isn't pretty for europe.

If all the prices rise in the US to compensate, Europe stays exactly as competitive as before.

> And finally, remember: the US actually exports inflation

You are blowing the horn yelling that this just stopped. Or what do you think a dollar devaluation is?

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mgh95 169 days ago
> If all the prices rise in the US to compensate, Europe stays exactly as competitive as before.

Yes, but my point is exactly the opposite has occurred for imports: the US is still roughly flat in terms of import inflation. Since Nov '22, import inflation has been sub-3% without exception and sub-2% since 2023 without exception. The US is still exporting inflation effectively, and US inflation is due to factors other than currency fluctuations.

That's the real issue: the USD weakened 8% against the EUR, and prices remain the same. For eurozone exporters to the US that's an absolute disaster.

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