[magnitudes]

I mean seriously is this the prediction folks are going with? Ok so we can build something like our SOTA coding agents today, breathing life into these things that 3 years ago were laughable science fiction, and your prediction is it will be worse from here on out? Do you realize coding is a verifiable domain which means we don’t technically even need any human data to improve these models? Like in your movie of 2050 everyone’s throwing their hands up “oh no we made them dumber because people don’t need to take 8 years of school and industry experience to build a good UI and industry best practice backend infrastructure”. I guess we can all predict what we want but my god

[ogogmad]

That's an INCREDIBLY good point about synthetic training data. During model training, AI agents could pretty much start their own coding projects, based on AI-generated wish-lists of features, and verify progress on their own. This leads to limitless training data in the area of coding.

Coding might be cooked.

[bigyabai]

> breathing life into these things that 3 years ago were laughable science fiction

LLMs were not fiction three years ago. Bidirectional text encoders are over a decade old.

[magnitudes]

Coding agents is what I’m talking about, they are also an old idea, everything is an old idea, what is new and a major step change is the realized capability of them in December 2025.

[bigyabai]

You are the first person I've ever heard call Dec 2025 a "major step change" moment in AI. And I've been following this space since BERT.

[magnitudes]

No, I’m saying AS OF Dec 2025. 2025 itself being a step change in that coding agent adoption has undergone a step change as a result of model quality and agent interface being good enough.

[bigyabai]

Understood, but I still think you're exaggerating. Tool use is a 2024 thing, and progress on model quality this year has been downright vomit-inducing (looking at you, OpenAI...)

[magnitudes]

What would you have expected model quality to have been this year, it’s greatly exceeded my expectations, I’m genuinely confused by this perspective…considering where we were a very very short time ago