[ggm]

Battery swap. Great for industry growth, but the manufacturers selling into US and Europe decided not to go there and disputable claims "it can't work" and false applications of Gresham's law are used to explain why.

The Gresham's law thing: money is just a transfer token. Batteries have a use value. The agents who could profit from hoarding good batteries, don't get to achieve the income of renting them.

It's working fine for scooters, and in China for cars and trucks.

Everyone is now betting on solid state getting both range and rapid charge.

[tengbretson]

The incentives for such a swapping system are completely busted.

Think of existing swap infrastructure out there, like propane tank swaps. People already use these systems to rinse defective or expired tanks all the time, and that overhead simply gets built into the price.

Now imagine if you could refill a propane tank at home by just plugging it in to your wall. The only reasons to use such a service are now exceptional cases like travel, or to move defective items.

For every new tank introduced to the supply, on average, how many good-for-good swaps will occur before the supplier gets a defective one? Take the cost of a new one and divide it by that average and that is the minimum overhead for a swap.

For batteries, that number is likely in the hundreds of dollars.

[wrycoder]

An EV with a degraded battery and miles per charge is still very useful for retired people who are tired of traveling long distance and can plug in at home. There should be a good market for them.

I tend to keep my cars over 200,000 miles. Today's cars last a long time. Still, looking back over the past three year's expenses between 150,000 and 200,000 miles, almost all of them relate to engine peripherals - like a new exhaust system, work on emission controls, and a new gas tank, which an EV doesn't have - or brakes, which on an EV last much longer.

[_yb2s]

Battery swap would just about eliminate planned obsolescence in cars- EVs should last just about forever if the batteries aren’t impossible to replace. The only real wear items in an EV drivetrain are a few cheap bearings that already will probably last a million miles. This would devastate the auto industry.

[PlunderBunny]

What about the interior? There’s no one thing you can point to in a car interior and say “that’s no good after X years” but we’ve all seen the interior of old cars. The batteries in modern EVs will last the lifetime of the vehicle [0] but what factor(s) determine that lifetime are unknown I think.

0. https://arstechnica.com/cars/2022/07/heres-one-way-we-know-t...

[_yb2s]

You can build a car interior that pretty much lasts forever, but it’s not cheap. There’s plenty of 60s and 70s Mercedes around with MBtex and zebra wood interiors that still look pretty much new after 6 decades of regular use. It’s eerie how good those old Mercedes interiors are, I’ve seen cars in the junkyard that were almost completely crumbled to rust powder, but the interior still was flawless. A good upholstery shop can also rebuild a car interior.

[jmward01]

My two biggest concerns buying a used EV: - privacy (my #1 concern for any vehicle right now) - how long the used battery will last

I can only hope we solve batteries making EVs throw-away vehicles either with quick battery swaps or with batteries that truly last a lifetime.

[rootusrootus]

Most EVs can have the battery swapped in less time than it takes to drop in a new engine. The real issue IMO is reliable availability of refurb batteries at a reasonable price, and reliability at least on par with an engine.

[dboreham]

Battery life isn't a concern with current EVs.

[_yb2s]

I’m not sure that is true. I’m a fan of classic European cars and a 70s or 80s Volvo or Mercedes is still a reliable and practical car. It does not seem likely that current battery tech is such that current EVs will have full range on the same batteries in 50 years- in my experience modern lithium batteries often loose 20 percent capacity in just 3-5 years even if you carefully manage them and limit full charge and discharge. And it does not seem like battery replacements are practical or affordable.

I just don’t see current EVs lasting like good quality ICE vehicles do when properly maintaining, because of battery aging.

[ehnto]

I'm not sure that tracks with my experience, plenty of 20-30 year old cars still running around. The people upgrading every few years do it for financial or image reasons rather than because the car stopped working.

Warranty anxiety is probably a big factor too, which could be legislated. Imagine how reliable cars would be if a 30 year warranty on drivetrain components was mandatory.

[_yb2s]

A quality car will last just about forever if you take care of it, Irv Gordon put 3.2 million miles on his 1966 Volvo and it was still in good shape at the end. But most people don’t maintain a car like that, however an EV has the potential to last like that with almost no maintenance.

[mattmaroon]

I don’t think it’s planned (car companies have been competing heavily on lifespan for decades with results) but battery lifetimes seem to already be such that it can last basically forever.

But most people replace their ICE looong before the battery dies. I’d assume the same would happen for EVs too.

[norir]

That sounds great. We can focus on planning the obsolescence of the auto industry rather than having the industry continue to extract rents on society. Of course this will be a political nightmare, but it does seem like truly the sooner the better.