[vanviegen]

NATO works by projecting a united force. Nations unconditionally backing each other up. The USA is now clearly no longer a part of that. That's not to say that the USA will do nothing if a NATO member is attacked. It might. Or not.

[SirHumphrey]

One can only imagine what America not fighting an attack on NATO member would have on nuclear proliferation.

[RobotToaster]

We're currently in the position of the USA threatening to attack a NATO member (Denmark)

[mrguyorama]

Limiting Nuclear proliferation was already fucked.

Trump tore up Iran's "we won't do nukes" deal, doesn't matter whether you think they were genuine or not, it demonstrates we will go back on a deal so our word isn't worth anything.

Ukraine shows that the west will not actually protect you like they claim, so your only option is getting nukes to really deter people.

North Korea and Pakistan demonstrate that you can pretty much do whatever you want with just a couple nukes, the west will cower in fear over idle threats.

No country would look at any of this and conclude that they have any choice but to build nukes to protect themselves.

[everyone]

Any country without nukes, that is not currently developing them, is stupid imo.. Nukes are the only thing that can guarantee sovereignty now. Ukraine gave up their nukes.

[vanviegen]

Do you believe the existing nuclear powers will just allow any country to join their ranks without a fight?

[thuridas]

Europe is already considering to have a nuclear shield.

This is because if Trump

[ArnoVW]

No need to consider. The UK and France have nukes. France even has a two-tier response. Not enough to vitrify Russia or China five times over, but enough to make them reconsider.

[jonnybgood]

For much of NATO history, the US is NATO. The US doesn’t want it to be like that anymore because it needs to strategically shift to the other side of the world. So, the US says “What if Europe can be NATO? If we can force them to meet the GDP commitment then maybe we don’t need to worry about them too much and commit less of our own resources to this theater.” But of course people interpret this as if the US is abandoning the alliance. No, the US just has other problems to deal with in the world.

[exceptione]

That is the rationalization, but don't be surprised if the US would not confront China at all.

The main flow of capital in the US had been going to the mil.industry, but that is not the case anymore. It is mainly surveillance tech that is receiving capital. In a very unhealthy economy, this all looks eerily pre-'30s.

The US, right now, is only threatening weak countries, they don't have the industrial power to confront China, nor do they want it. This shouldn't be a surprise, some ideologues behind this maga-project belief in an America from one pole to the other. They believe in "spheres of influence", and as such China has their own sphere of influence. A sphere of influence means a kind of colony, where natural resources, people and industry are all resources to be extracted by them. It is the Russian model, it is the model of criminal mobs, it is might makes right, it is a multi-polar world.

Meanwhile, re-industrialization projects have been scrapped, partners have been scared of, and tariffs have hit the industry that was still left in America.

Monopolists are parasites on the economy, and the US is already very weakened from that. As the Japanese said, the US is still a great power, but the throne is empty. I suspect there will be skirmishes with other "great powers" over exploitable resources like Africa, Middle East, Europe, but I don't expect the current crop to go all-in on China.

[ChocolateGod]

The US has been the biggest opponent to a European (or EU) army, fearing loss of influence and control. It was very much in US interest at the time.

[vanviegen]

Yes, the US has always been the driving force behind NATO. It provides close to 40% of the combined military personnel, and an even higher portion of military spending.

No longer committing to defend other NATO countries, even if their military spending exceeds the target, is abandoning the alliance though. NATO is little else than that commitment.

[benterix]

Well, the very fact that we are even discussing it means Trump already weakened NATO as an alliance.