[spwa4]

> Memory prices will rise short term and generally fall long term, even with the current supply hiccup the answer is to just build out more capacity (which will happen if there is healthy competition)

Don't worry! Sam Altman is on it. Making sure there never is healthy competition that is.

https://www.mooreslawisdead.com/post/sam-altman-s-dirty-dram...

[seanmcdirmid]

We’ve been through multiple cycles of scarcity/surplus DRAM cycles in the last couple of decades. Why do we think it will be different now?

[re-thc]

> Why do we think it will be different now?

Margins. AI usage can pay a lot more. Even if they sell less than can still be more profitable.

In the past there wasn’t a high margin usage. Servers didn’t charge such a high premium.

[seanmcdirmid]

Do you not think that some DRAM producer isn't going to see the high margins as a signal to create more capacity to get ahead of the other DRAM producers? This is how it always has worked before, but somehow it is different this time?

[re-thc]

> Do you not think that some DRAM producer isn't going to see the high margins as a signal to create more capacity to get ahead of the other DRAM producers?

They took the bite during COVID and failed, so there's still fear from over supply.

[seanmcdirmid]

It only works if they collude on keeping supply steady. If anyone gets greedy for a bigger share of the AI pie, then it implodes quickly. Not all DRAM is made in South Korea so some nationalism will muddy the waters as well.

[zozbot234]

High margins are exactly what should create a strong incentive to build more capacity. But that dynamic has been tamped down so far because we're all scared of a possible AI bubble that might pop at any moment.