[0xDEAFBEAD]

Interesting how internet boosters in the late 90s/early 2000s told us the internet would revitalize democracy by making it so anyone could publish. I'm not aware of a single cynic who successfully predicted how things actually ended up turning out. Nor have I seen much of an attempt to revisit those early predictions.

[garyrob]

> I'm not aware of a single cynic who successfully predicted how things actually ended up turning out.

Let's change that here and now! :)

I was one of the optimists in the very early 2000s when I attended a talk by Columbia professor Eli Noam. In 2002, he wrote an article in the Financial Times called "Why the internet is bad for democracy" which essentially predicted the world is we know it.

I immediately saw that he was right, at least with regard to the fact that it COULD turn out as it has, in fact, turned out. He fundamentally changed my view, way back then. In 2005 a version was published in a more academic context: “Why the Internet is bad for democracy.” Communications of the ACM 48(10): 57–58 (2005).

Here's the FT version: https://www.citicolumbia.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/Why-...

[mapontosevenths]

That was startlingly accurate! Thanks for sharing.

Any idea if he's published anything recently? A quick Google seems to show a textbook a few years back and then not much recently.

[Anamon]

Short, densely packed and to the point. It does seem very prescient, although I may be underestimating how clearly these tendencies could already be seen 20 years ago. I, for one, was definitely still in the techno-optimist camp back then.

"Free access to information is indeed helpful, which is why the internet undermines totalitarianism. But it undermines pretty much everything else, too, including democracy."

Indeed.

[eimrine]

RMS has seen our troubles with non-free software as early as in 80s. What he has not predict that the software has find even more cruel way of shipping - disservices which do not even allow the freedom 0.

BTW the statement about democracy is not a lie - everyone knows some big and small revolutions happened after someone's post in social networks. Also such things as anonymous news sources, torrents and bitcoin has democraticized a whole lot of things in our lives.

[dokyun]

You should play Metal Gear Solid 2, or at least watch the last codec call[1]. See how much you can apply what it talks about to the current year. This game came out a month after 9/11.

[1]: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eKl6WjfDqYA

[jjpones]

Related: https://www.dexerto.com/gaming/hideo-kojima-says-metal-gear-... (title: Hideo Kojima says Metal Gear Solid 2 became the future he hoped would not happen)

[exq]

"AI will democratize education and information access as everyone will have their own personal tutor and librarian!"

History repeats

[neonroku]

Earth by David Brin and Ender’s Game made some predictions in this area

[wkat4242]

Also William Gibson and other cyberpunk franchises. A big recurring theme is the lost fight against corporate interests. A bit worse than the state our world is in right now but certainly where we're heading.

[eleventen]

I vaguely remember “The Nets” in Enders game but not how they functioned. What about Card’s portrayal did you find prescient?

[eucyclos]

Card's idea that everyone could publish and excellent voices would be amplified was correct in premise, though it's conclusion was completely off. Classic XKCD parodied it brilliantly IMHO: https://xkcd.com/635/

[numpad0]

It did, then piracy happened, couple revolutions in Middle East followed, and the crackdown on English-speaking social media began.