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by randerson 180 days ago
Given how many people are getting rich from the inflated stock prices of every AI-adjacent company right now, including the ones with no obvious path to profitability, I could make the argument that they're already in a short term extraction phase.

(I'm also not sure if putting a significant % of the population out of work will create long term value to society.)
1 comments
twoodfin 180 days ago
The stocks are inflated because Wall Street believes current $$$$$ capital investments will create massive long-term value!!
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randerson 179 days ago
As a lowly retail investor, I'm only investing in AI because everyone else is investing in AI. I hope for a greater fool to dump my AI stocks on before the music stops. I am sure plenty of Wall Street sees it the same way.

We're certainly seeing short term value at companies who grew profits by replacing workers with cheap AI tools. But the true cost of those AI tools is still being paid by investors, not customers. (Not to mention the indirect costs being paid by society, from the rising cost of RAM & electricity to global warming.)

In the long term these AI companies will need to raise their prices substantially if they're to break even. Will the value still be there for their customers when its no longer cheap?

And if AI puts enough people permanently out of work, the GDP will drop, leading to demand for any product made with AI dropping too. It is an industry that could eventually eat itself.

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re-thc 180 days ago
> Wall Street believes current $$$$$ capital investments will create massive long-term value

Clearly not. The stock market has a correction at least every few years. So Wall Street only believes they can sell the stock for higher within a few years. Not very long term is it?

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zozbot234 179 days ago
If you could predict a stock market correction before it happens, you'd be very, very rich. The fact that corrections sometimes happen does not negate the existence of market-wide expectations for any given stock.
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re-thc 179 days ago
> If you could predict a stock market correction before it happens, you'd be very, very rich.

Same goes for if you can predict the price of a stock... but analysts do it anyway and set targets for stocks.

> The fact that corrections sometimes happen does not negate the existence of market-wide expectations for any given stock.

The crash or not is part of the expectation. Regardless of what you read on articles, those fund managers often sit out situations they don't deem worthy of investing.

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ChadNauseam 179 days ago
> So Wall Street only believes they can sell the stock for higher within a few years.

Or they think the returns from holding the stock will be higher.

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