[burnte]

I've been in this game so long, seen so many shortages that I'm not even worried. Right now prices are high, manufacturers are switching production, and in 6 months there's going to be a glut of supply.

It's all a long game, folks. Play it long.

[brianwawok]

Long game is fine for optional upgrades. “I really wish my game system had 20% better graphics”. Less good when your system crashes and you need something new to work on Monday.

[Dylan16807]

> manufacturers are switching production

In what ways? The only switching I've seen is away from desktop memory.

[burnte]

You've answered the question! They're redirecting those chips to industrial use which makes desktop products more expensive and less available. Samsung is also extending DDR4 production, for example.

[Dylan16807]

I thought you were listing a switch in production that would relieve the shortages after we wait a few months. Switching away from desktop memory makes the shortages worse. So why do you expect there to be a glut in 6 months?

If you meant glut of memory suitable for datacenter GPUs, I don't expect that nearly so soon. That market can absorb extra chips pretty easily unless we see a really harsh pop really soon.

[burnte]

The same chips go into desktops as servers, so this is just redirecting the chips to another assembly line. I think there's a good chance the memory market will see a huge boost in supply to server spaces, and some memory will switch back to desktop use.

[FuriouslyAdrift]

It takes about a decade (and $10s of billions) to bring new fabs online