[bayareapsycho]

There will be a cliff in the number of people in this industry. There will be a bunch of senior people floating around the job market and no more junior talent. There will be fewer new grads and the pipelines will dry up.

If they go down the route of automating as much as possible, it'll destroy the social pipelines that allow companies to reproduce themselves.

I don't think that'll actually happen, but it'll be interesting to watch

[xnx]

Programming may become like typing where people do it for themselves instead of having a secretary.

[kjellsbells]

I think the set of values of X in the prediction that "X is the year of the citizen coder" has a lot more members than you think.

fortran in 1955, cobol in 1965, visual basic in 1993, delphi in 1995, visualage in 1998(?), Power Automate in 2022, vibe coding in 2025...

[Imustaskforhelp]

What are your opinions on accepting junior talent say, 4 years from now?

Would there be any changes because I feel like a lot of junior talent isnt picked because of AI but I feel like given a long enough timescope, AI bubble will burst and so taking that into account, what would you say about the job market?

[kaycey2022]

Unless there is an exponential growth in model context AI is not replacing anything. So far every new model launches with some increase in advertised intelligence, but only with increasingly dubious ways to measure the same.

All the current crop of AI does is it makes the job of some people easier and allows some others to level up faster in terms output. If managements are going to be stupid enough to destroy the human side of the business, then they are only setting themselves up to spend much much more hiring the right people in the future.

[bayareapsycho]

I don't think the "bubble will burst" in the sense that all of this tooling will go away. Maybe companies shift the focus on running them more efficiently.

I don't think companies will suddenly turn over a new leaf and start hiring juniors like they were in 2020. Even if they tried, within 2 or 3 years they won't be able to as easily.

Fewer people will major in a field where there's some shrieking news headline every 5 seconds about how it's going to get automated out of existence. And the candidate quality will go down, since why bother leetcoding or reading a bunch of textbooks to upskill if there's no ROI associated with it.

If I was an undergrad right now, I totally wouldn't. And I wouldn't have read all of the books that I suffered through to develop understanding. Choosing a major is just betting on the future.

[Imustaskforhelp]

I just don't think that AI will get any better, its basically become a benchmaxxing contest of sorts and I think one of the issues I have with this is that when companies realize that this is the AI that we are gonna get, like sure it can be beneficial for some people but people (seniors atleast) want autonomy of their code and they would most likely use it as a code review and I have heard many instances where seniors are tired of reading junior ai generated code

I think that this is going to continue and although AI can be good for proto-typing ideas and similar (which is mainly what I use it for), in my opinion, I feel like AI is still black magic where everyone is winging it but I feel like the way AI is right now (generate all code sort of) would lead to more bugs and issues and just frustration by seniors overall

There have been studies where companies who use AI lose money Companies who generate AI lose money in training costs/others There are studies where people who use AI actually lose productivity There are many anecdotal evidences that seniors dont like to waste time on ai generated slop code to code review

So in a sense, this would be a tool which can have vast productivity differences, people might want to get the speed but I feel like that when these bubble bursts and these companies give the real prices of their tooling which can be a lot in my opinion. I feel like a lot of companies will see even more losses/ its not that good overall

As I have said within the 2020's the interest rate was down so people hired more and there was already a hiring freeze of sorts when interest rates were raised

I feel like 4-5 years down the line, interest rates can go down again and with all the other AI things seeping into reality/market corrections overall, I feel like there can be cases where using AI can panic the market and lose stock prices and so with all the other factors, I feel like employment will go up again

To be honest, I dont know too much about employment, I feel like its similar to mathematics in a sense but I read books on finance and so my honest opinion is that the goal of being financially independent is to do the work that you like and I genuinely enjoy doing this work for the most part and so no matter how much it pays (which I assume to be honest would be good enough for me considering I live in third world country and I am frugal anyways) plus with all the other factors, i am pretty optimistic. I am also optimistic that I can create my own businesses much rather easily by prototyping multiple ideas with LLM generated code and then locking in on those which have a market fit to gain a sustainable cash cow. I will do these things when I get into university and then 4 years down the line, I do think that I can find something which can hopefully click but I still might do a job.

In my opinion, the companies not hiring right now are gonna cause an higher issue down the line and I am confident that no matter what, I just wanna do the thing I like as a job and there are other opinions on this matter (see other comment) which are optimistic down 4-5 years and I share that opinion